レベル3自動運転車市場 – 2035年までの世界予測

本レポートは、レベル3自動運転車市場を地域別（北米、欧州、アジア太平洋地域）に分析しています。また、レベル3自動運転車を展開する主要OEMや、ティア1やテクノロジー企業などの市場エコシステムにおける他のプレーヤーの競合評価も網羅しています。このレポート調査には、現在の提供内容、他のプレーヤーとの比較、重点分野、計画の詳細な比較分析が含まれています。

The level 3 autonomous vehicles market is projected to grow from 291 thousand units in 2025 to 8.7 million units by 2035 at a CAGR of 40.5%.

レベル3の自動運転車市場は、2025 年の 291,000 台から 2035 年までに 870 万台に増加し、CAGR 40.5% で成長すると予測されています。

Level 3 autonomy is an essential milestone in the overall roadmap for autonomous vehicles. While level 1 and 2 autonomous features have become prevalent in most countries worldwide, level 3 autonomy is picking up relatively slowly. Level 1 & 2 autonomy is primarily driven by the regulatory norms requiring advanced active and passive safety systems in the vehicles complemented by advancements in sensing hardware and software algorithms. On the other hand, level 3 autonomy faces challenges from robust and reliable autonomous suites and the regulatory side, which is reluctant to deploy level 3 autonomous vehicles on public roads. The reason for this gap is the need for exceptional reliability from the vehicle systems (steering, braking, and vehicle electrical system) and uncertainty on the liability of any mishap, potentially scrapping the entire idea of autonomous and automated driving.

レベル3の自動運転は、自動運転車の全体的なロードマップにおける重要なマイルストーンです。レベル1と2の自動運転機能は世界中のほとんどの国で普及していますが、レベル3の自動運転は比較的ゆっくりと普及しています。レベル1と2の自動運転は、主に、センシングハードウェアとソフトウェアアルゴリズムの進歩によって補完された、車両に高度なアクティブセーフティとパッシブセーフティシステムを要求する規制基準によって推進されています。その一方で、レベル3の自動運転は、堅牢で信頼性の高い自動運転スイートと、レベル3の自動運転車を公道に配備することに消極的な規制側からの課題に直面しています。このギャップの理由は、車両システム（ステアリング、ブレーキ、車両電気システム）に並外れた信頼性が求められることと、事故が発生した場合の責任に関する不確実性であり、自動運転と自動運転の概念全体が無駄になる可能性があります。

“Consumer confidence across China and the Middle East to open opportunities for OEMs planning to launch level 3 autonomous vehicles”

Chinese consumers are generally open about adopting advanced vehicle features, including driving technologies. Consumers in China have recently shown a rising interest in Level 2+ and Level 3 features. However, safety concerns are still a major challenge. Recent reports from Chinese automotive media state that while interest in level 3 features is strong—especially among younger, tech-savvy buyers—most mainstream consumers remain cautious. For example, in surveys of budget EV buyers (~100,000 RMB class), safety consistently ranked as the most considerable hesitation.

The most notable strategy of Chinese OEMs like BYD, Xpeng, and NIO is bundling advanced level 2+/level 3 autonomy as standard or low-cost features to stay competitive. This strategy reflects a market where consumers increasingly expect smart-driving features as a baseline—rather than paying a premium. Chinese consumers are open to level 3 tech, especially in higher-end EVs, but demand strong safety training, demos, and regulatory clarity.

“Prioritizing scalable & modular E/E architecture development to emerge as the key to faster shift to autonomous vehicles”

Recent years have witnessed rapid attention toward software-defined vehicles, which essentially are based on next-gen E/E architecture that forms the basis of a flexible and more powerful foundation for autonomous vehicles. Higher autonomy levels require seamless sensors, computing chips, and connectivity integration for better reliability. Thus, developing scalable and modular E/E architecture (such as zonal) becomes the first step for higher autonomy levels. Level 2 autonomy can be deployed upon conventional architectures as they do not have primary requirements around OTA updates, scalability, and feature enhancement. With level 3 autonomous vehicles being the foundation of truly autonomous vehicles, investing in next-gen architecture is the most crucial step towards autonomous mobility and additional revenues. This can be achieved through partnerships with Tier I & tech companies or in-house development. While Tesla is more focused on in-house development of OS and E/E architecture, OEMs such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and others are taking a hybrid approach with a major focus on in-house development and also through partnership with Tier I/tech companies.

“Asia Pacific is projected to demonstrate the fastest growth in the level 3 autonomous vehicles market during the forecast period.”

North America (California & Nevada) and Europe (particularly Germany) are leading the level 3 autonomous vehicles market as these are the only markets with level 3 driving deployment and approval. While Japan also allows using level 3 autonomous vehicles on public roads, it has limited use due to Honda’s production of only 100 vehicles. Mercedes-Benz and BMW are leading the market by launching their level 3 autonomous models. This is expected to be followed by OEMs such as Zeekr, Xpeng, BYD, Volkswagen, and Hyundai, with their aggressive efforts for level 3 autonomous vehicle development. This growth is expected to kickstart in the next 2-3 years as Chinese OEMs such as Zeekr, Xpeng, and others plan to launch level 3 autonomous vehicles. It should be noted that Chinese OEMs are focused on gaining mass volume in domestic and international markets. BYD primarily leads this trend by launching its God’s Eye self-driving system. Thus, as the level 3 autonomous vehicle reaches the final development stage, rapid growth can be expected in the country for these vehicles.

In-depth interviews were conducted with CEOs, marketing directors, other innovation and technology directors, and executives from various key organizations operating in this market. Given below is the breakup of interviews:

• By Company Type: Tier I – 24%, Tier II – 67%, and Tier III – 9%
• By Designation: C-Level – 33%, Managers – 52%, and Executives – 15%
• By Region: North America – 26%, Europe – 30%, Asia Pacific – 35%, and ROW – 9%

Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Honda currently dominate the level 3 autonomous market. Other major players expected to lead the market are Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Hyundai. Chinese OEMs such as BYD, Xpeng, and Zeekr are aggressively working on level 3 autonomous vehicle development, focusing on mass market share gain.

Research Coverage:

The report covers the level 3 autonomous vehicles market in terms of Region (North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific). It also covers the competitive assessment of the major OEMs operating in level 3 autonomous vehicles and other market ecosystem players such as Tier I and tech companies.

This report study includes an in-depth comparative analysis of the current offerings, their comparison with other players, focus areas, and plans.

Key Benefits of Buying the Report:

• The report will help market leaders/new entrants understand the ongoing developments in level 3 autonomous vehicles.
• This report will help stakeholders understand the current offerings and anticipated future plans of the OEMs & Tier I companies, along with separate analyses for global and Chinese players.
• The report will also help stakeholders understand the market pulse and provide information on key market drivers, challenges, and technology analysis.
• The report will also help stakeholders understand the current and future penetration trends of the level 3 autonomous vehicles.

The report provides insight into the following points:

• Analysis of key drivers (Need for improving sensing technologies, focus on positive consumer perception and government safety regulations on safety features mandate, and need for identifying strong potential from subscription packages revenues) and challenges (regulatory skepticism in select markets, lack of clarity on accident/mishap liability, issues with infrastructure readiness)
• Technology Analysis: Detailed insights into ongoing and upcoming technologies and research & development activities in the level 3 autonomous vehicles market
• Competitive Assessment: In-depth assessment of OEM offerings, plans, and strategic developments, analysis for Tier I companies operating in the level 3 autonomous vehicles market

Table of Contents

1               INTRODUCTION              9

1.1           STUDY OBJECTIVES       9

1.2           MARKET DEFINITION   9

1.2.1        INCLUSIONS & EXCLUSIONS       10

1.3           YEARS CONSIDERED      10

1.4           UNIT CONSIDERED        11

1.5           KEY STAKEHOLDERS     11

2               INTRODUCTION TO LEVEL 3 AUTONOMY           12

2.1           INTRODUCTION OF ADAS LEVELS           12

2.2           LEVEL 3 AUTONOMY     12

2.2.1        BASIC DIFFERENTIATION: LEVEL 1 VS. LEVEL 2/2.5 VS. LEVEL 3                 13

2.2.2        TECHNICAL COMPARISON: LEVEL 1 VS. LEVEL 2/2.5 VS. LEVEL 3                 13

2.2.3        HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE DISTINCTIONS BETWEEN LEVEL 1, 2, AND 3 ADAS 14

2.2.3.1    Sensor suite evolution          14

2.2.3.2    Compute and architecture  14

2.2.3.3    Redundancy and safety        14

3               MARKET OVERVIEW       15

3.1           MARKET DYNAMICS       15

3.1.1        DRIVERS               15

3.1.1.1    Focus on improving sensing technologies        15

3.1.1.2    Positive consumer perception on ADAS systems            17

3.1.1.3    Popularity of subscription packages  18

3.1.2        CHALLENGES    20

3.1.2.1    Lack of clarity on accident/mishap liability      20

3.1.2.2    Liability concerns for major stakeholders         20

3.1.2.3    Issues concerning infrastructure readiness      21

3.1.2.4    Infrastructure limitations in major countries   22

3.2           ADAS NORMS AND REGULATIONS           22

3.2.1        GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS ON SAFETY MANDATES                 22

3.2.1.1    Regulatory norms mandating ADAS features  23

3.2.2        REGULATORY SKEPTICISM IN SELECT MARKETS                 24

3.2.2.1    Regulatory norms for ADAS in select countries              24

3.3           TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS             25

3.3.1        LEVEL 3 AUTONOMY HARDWARE            25

3.3.2        SENSOR FUSION TECHNOLOGY FOR LEVEL 3 AUTONOMY       27

3.3.2.1    Deep learning-based sensor fusion   27

3.3.2.2    Artificial intelligence for sensor fusion              28

3.3.3        ROLE OF 5G CONNECTIVITY IN LEVEL 3 AUTONOMY                 29

3.4           ECOSYSTEM FOR OVERALL ADAS AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES            30

3.5           MNM INSIGHTS INTO HIGH-PERFORMANCE CHIPS POWERING NEXT-GEN ADAS AND AUTONOMY 30

3.5.1        COMPUTING UNITS FOR ADAS APPLICATIONS 31

3.6           MNM INSIGHTS INTO ADVANCEMENTS TO LEVEL 4 AUTONOMY IN MOBILITY AND TRUCKING         31

3.7           CONSUMER PERCEPTION ON ADAS, BY REGION                 32

3.7.1        CHINA  32

3.7.2        US           33

3.7.3        EUROPEAN UNION          33

3.7.4        INDIA    33

3.7.5        SOUTH KOREA  33

3.7.6        JAPAN   34

3.7.7        MIDDLE EAST   34

4               LEVEL 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARKET ASSESSMENT     35

4.1           CURRENT PENETRATION OF LEVEL 3 VEHICLES                 35

4.1.1        LEVEL 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARKET, BY REGION                 36

4.2           REGULATIONS  37

4.2.1        EXISTING REGULATIONS ON AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, BY REGION         37

4.2.2        NCAP REGULATIONS, BY REGION            39

4.2.3        REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, BY REGION              40

4.2.3.1    China      40

4.2.3.2    Japan      40

4.2.3.3    South Korea           40

4.2.3.4    India       40

4.2.3.5    US           40

4.2.3.6    European Union   41

5               COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE         42

5.1           OEM ANALYSIS 43

5.1.1        SELECT PASSENGER CAR MODELS EQUIPPED WITH LEVEL 2 OR ABOVE ADAS SYSTEMS         44

5.1.2        LEVEL 2 AND ABOVE ADAS SYSTEMS OFFERED BY TOP CHINESE OEMS 45

5.1.3        SELECT PASSENGER CAR MODELS EQUIPPED WITH LEVEL 2 OR ABOVE ADAS SYSTEMS         46

5.1.4        COMPARISON BETWEEN LEVEL 3 ADAS SUITES 47

5.1.5        COMPARISON BETWEEN LEVEL 3 ADAS HARDWARE COMPONENTS  48

5.1.6        PLANS OF OEMS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LEVEL 3 ADAS                 48

5.2           MNM INSIGHTS INTO DEVELOPMENTS UNDERTAKEN BY TIER I COMPANIES IN LEVEL 3 ADAS SPACE  50

5.2.1        CURRENT TIER I OFFERINGS FOR LEVEL 3 ADAS                 50

5.2.2        CURRENT CHIPSET OFFERINGS BY TOP TIER I COMPANIES       52

5.2.3        ECOSYSTEM INTERCONNECTION FOR LEVEL 3 ADAS SYSTEMS              52

6               RECOMMENDATIONS   54

6.1           RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OEMS             54

6.1.1        PRIORITIZING SCALABLE AND MODULAR E/E ARCHITECTURES             54

6.1.2        INVESTING IN DIFFERENTIATED SENSOR FUSION AND REDUNDANCY  54

6.1.3        DEVELOPING STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS WITH TIER I/CHIPSET MANUFACTURERS    55

6.1.4        FOCUSING ON SPECIFIC USE CASES AND REGIONAL ODDS    55

6.1.5        OFFERING FLEXIBLE MONETIZATION MODELS 55

6.1.6        ENSURING CO-DEVELOPMENT WITH REGULATORY AUTHORITIES   56

6.2           RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TIER I COMPANIES   56

6.2.1        FOCUSING ON DEVELOPING LEVEL 3-READY SENSOR SUITE    56

6.2.2        INTEGRATING SENSOR FUSION WITH COMPUTING PLATFORM PACKAGE    56

6.2.3        FOCUSING ON SOFTWARE-DEFINED VEHICLE (SDV) NEEDS OF OEMS               56

6.2.4        FOCUSING ON REGION-SPECIFIC OFFERINGS    56

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1                INCLUSIONS & EXCLUSIONS       10

TABLE 2                BASIC DIFFERENTIATION: LEVEL 1 VS. LEVEL 2/2.5 VS. LEVEL 3               13

TABLE 3                TECHNICAL COMPARISON: LEVEL 1 VS. LEVEL 2/2.5 VS. LEVEL 3               13

TABLE 4                EXISTING LEVEL 3 ADAS OFFERINGS BY LEGACY TIER I COMPANIES          16

TABLE 5                LEVEL 3 ADAS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS                 16

TABLE 6                L2+/3 ADAS SYSTEMS: SUBSCRIPTION PACKAGES, PRICING, AND ADAS SUITES OFFERED BY OEMS                 19

TABLE 7                LIABILITY CONCERNS FOR MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS               20

TABLE 8                INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITATIONS IN MAJOR COUNTRIES        22

TABLE 9                REGULATORY NORMS MANDATING ADAS FEATURES           23

TABLE 10              REGULATORY NORMS FOR ADAS IN SELECT COUNTRIES        24

TABLE 11              RECENT SENSOR INNOVATION BY TIER I COMPANIES AND THEIR USE CASES        26

TABLE 12              CONSUMER SENTIMENT ON LEVEL 3 ADAS SYSTEMS ACROSS MAJOR MARKETS        34

TABLE 13              LEVEL 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022–2024 (‘000 UNITS)                36

TABLE 14              LEVEL 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARKET, BY REGION, 2025–2035 (‘000 UNITS)                37

TABLE 15              EXISTING REGULATIONS ON ADAS AND AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, BY REGION    37

TABLE 16              NCAP REGULATIONS, BY REGION            39

TABLE 17              SELECT PASSENGER CAR MODELS EQUIPPED WITH LEVEL 2 OR ABOVE ADAS SYSTEMS, BY OEM, 2024–2025                 44

TABLE 18              SELECT PASSENGER CAR MODELS EQUIPPED WITH LEVEL 2 OR ABOVE ADAS SYSTEMS, BY CHINESE OEM, 2024–2025              46

TABLE 19              COMPARISON BETWEEN LEVEL 3 ADAS SUITES, BY OEM                47

TABLE 20              LEVEL 3 ADAS HARDWARE OFFERED BY OEMS                 48

TABLE 21              ROADMAP OF MAJOR OEMS FOR ADAS LEVEL 3                 48

TABLE 22              TIER I PRODUCT OFFERINGS FOR LEVEL 3 ADAS                 51

TABLE 23              CHIP OFFERINGS RELEVANT TO LEVEL 3 ADAS SYSTEMS BY MAJOR PLAYERS     52

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1              LEVEL 1 TO LEVEL 5 ADAS: ASSISTED VS. AUTOMATED    12

FIGURE 2              LEVEL 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARKET: DRIVERS, RESTRAINTS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND CHALLENGES                 15

FIGURE 3              CUSTOMER SATISFACTION LEVEL FOR SAFETY SYSTEMS, 2021 VS. 2022  17

FIGURE 4              CONSUMER UNDERSTANDING LEVEL OF SAFETY SYSTEMS, 2021 VS. 2022 18

FIGURE 5              RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION: SENSOR FUSION WITH DEEP LEARNING                28

FIGURE 6              RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION: AI-BASED SENSOR FUSION                29

FIGURE 7              ECOSYSTEM MAPPING FOR OVERALL ADAS AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 30

FIGURE 8              COMPUTING UNITS FOR ADAS APPLICATIONS                 31

FIGURE 9              ADVANCEMENT TOWARD LEVEL 4 AUTONOMY IN MOBILITY AND TRUCKING    32

FIGURE 10            PENETRATION OF LEVEL 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AGAINST TOTAL VEHICLE SALES, 2022–2035 (’000 UNITS) 35

FIGURE 11            SALES NUMBERS FOR LEVELS 2/2+ AND 3 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES,

2022–2035 (’000 UNITS)  36

FIGURE 12            LEVEL 3 AND ABOVE ADAS SYSTEMS: ECOSYSTEM MAPPING  53

FIGURE 13            REDUNDANCY IN MERCEDES-BENZ’S ‘DRIVE PILOT’  54

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