出版：Techcet（テクセット） 出版年月：2023年5月
CMP CONSUMABLES – SLURRY and PAD MARKETS
CMP消耗品市場調査 2023年：スラリーとパッド
| ページ数 | 120 ※ |
| 図表数 | 77 |
| 価格（ベーシックライセンス） | US$8,900 |
| 種別 | 英文調査報告書 |
※Chapter 8（Supplier Profiles）のページ数は含まれていません。
Techcet「CMP消耗品市場調査 2023年：スラリーとパッド – CMP CONSUMABLES – SLURRY and PAD MARKETS」は半導体デバイス製造に使用されるCMP消耗品のうち、スラリーとパッド市場を調査・分析し、技術関連情報や企業情報を掲載しています。
当レポートの特長
- 市場ダイナミクス全般に関する情報
- サプライチェーンマネージャー、生産統合、R&D管理者、事業開発、財務アナリストに関する情報
- 半導体デバイス製造に使用されるCMPパッド、スラリー、ディスクに関連したサプライチェーン、市場、技術動向に関する情報
- 主要サプライヤ、材料供給における問題／動向、サプライヤの市場シェア評価、材料市場予測
主な掲載内容
- エグゼクティブサマリー
- 調査範囲、目的、メソドロジー
- 半導体産業の市場状況と展望
- 世界経済
- 電子製品セグメント別チップ売上
- 半導体製造の成長と拡大
- 政策＆貿易動向と影響
- 半導体材料展望
- CMP消耗品市場動向
- CMP消耗品市場動向
- 技術的促進要因 / 材料の変化と変遷
- 化合物半導体の技術動向
- 地域別動向
- EHSと物流問題
- CMPスラリーサプライヤー市場
- CMPスラリー収益の5年予測
- SMPスラリー台数の5年予測
- CU BPR（BURIED POWER RAIL）スラリー市場
- CMPスラリーのM&A、発表、提携関係
- CMPスラリー工場の閉鎖
- 新規参入企業
- 存続の危機にあるサプライヤまたは部品/生産ライン
- CMPスラリーの価格動向
- TECHCETアナリストによるCMPスラリー市場評価
- CMPパッド市場の統計データと予測
- CMPパッド収益の5年予測
- CMPパッド台数の5年予測
- CMPパッド工場の閉鎖
- 新規参入企業
- 存続の危機にあるサプライヤまたは部品/生産ライン
- CMPパッドのM&A、発表、提携関係
- CMPパッドの価格動向
- TECHCETのアナリストによる評価
- 材料のサブティア供給
- サプライヤー情報
- 別表
Description
This report covers the CMP Consumables market (specifically CMP slurry and pads) and supply-chain for those consumables used in semiconductor device fabrication. The report contains data and analysis from TECHCET’s data base and Sr. Analyst experience, as well as that developed from primary and secondary market research. CMP slurries and pads are a critical in semiconductor manufacturing as process integration requires the fabrication of thin and uniformly flat layers to build up device structures across the semiconductor wafers. The number of CMP process steps continue to increase with each generation of new device technology. New device technology is characterized by more layers, new materials, tighter process control requirements, and new techniques for advanced packaging. These manufacturing challenges require new developments in CMP slurries and pads. This report looks at the market drivers, slurry and pad forecasts by application, market shares, abrasive suppliers, and includes a special focus on advanced packaging.
Analyst
Sarah Okada
Sarah Okada joined TECHCET as a senior market analyst in January 2021
Ms. Okada has worked in leadership roles in the semiconductor industry for over 25 years focusing on product management, marketing and technical sales of substrate and device manufacturing equipment.
Ms. Okada started in the semiconductor industry in 1995 in the applications development group at Strasbaugh, a supplier of CMP and grinding equipment.
In 2013, she was promoted to director of sales and marketing for Strasbaugh where she incorporated marketing and sales best practices to develop a new brand for Strasbaugh and launched a successful new HVM grinding product.
Ms. Okada was key in the acquisition of Strasbaugh’s technology for Revasum in 2016, where she served as VP of marketing and product management and launched the industry’s first fully automated SiC substrate polisher.
Since joining Nova in November 2020, Ms. Okada has been leading work on the SIMS-based METRION platform and was recently promoted to product marketing director
Ms Okada holds a bachelor’s degree in Marketing and Finance from the University of Oregon.
目次
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET OVERVIEW 10
1.2 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE TRENDS 11
1.3 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING CMP CONSUMABLES OUTLOOK 12
1.4 YEAR 2022 IN REVIEW 13
1.5 CMP CONSUMABLES FORECASTS BY MATERIAL SEGMENT 14
1.5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 15
1.5.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 16
1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 17
1.6.1 BACKSIDE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 18
1.7 SLURRY SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 19
1.8 PAD SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 20
1.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 21
1.9.1 ANALYST ASSESSMENT, CONTINUED 22
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 23
2.1 SCOPE 24
2.2 PURPOSE 25
2.3 METHODOLOGY 26
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 27
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 28
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 29
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 31
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 32
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 33
3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 – SLOWER TO NEGATIVE SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 34
3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 35
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 36
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 37
3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 40
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 41
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 42
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 44
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 45
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 46
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 47
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 48
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 49
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION SCHEDULES? 50
3.5.2 LOGISTICS ISSUES EASED DOWN 51
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2027 52
3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 53
4 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 54
4.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 55
4.2 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 56
4.2.1 3D NAND ROADMAP 58
4.2.2 3D NAND STACKING 59
4.2.3 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 60
4.2.4 CMP FOR TSV 62
4.3 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR 63
4.3.1 CMP OF SILICON CARBIDE 64
4.3.2 SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 65
4.3.3 CMP CHALLENGES IN SILICON CARBIDE 66
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS 67
4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 68
4.4.2 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS, CONTINUED 69
4.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 70
4.5.1 EHS ISSUES FOR NEW MATERIALS 71
4.5.2 LOGISTIC ISSUES 72
4.5.3 EHS ISSUES FOR SLURRY DISPOSAL, RECYCLING AND RECLAIM 73
5 CMP SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 74
5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 75
5.2 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 76
5.3 CMP SLURRY MARKET LEADERS 77
5.3.1 TOTAL SLURRY MARKET SHARE 78
5.3.2 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET 79
5.3.3 HKMG SLURRY MARKET 81
5.3.4 POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET 83
5.3.5 OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET 85
5.3.6 TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET 86
5.3.7 CU BULK SLURRY MARKET 87
5.3.8 COPPER BARRIER SLURRY MARKET 88
5.3.9 NEW METALS SLURRY MARKET 90
5.3.10 CU BURIED POWER RAIL (BPR) SLURRY MARKET 91
5.4 CMP SLURRY M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS 92
5.5 CMP SLURRY PLANT CLOSURES 93
5.6 NEW ENTRANTS 94
5.7 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS 95
5.8 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS 96
5.9 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF CMP SLURRY MARKET 97
6 CMP PAD MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 98
6.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 99
6.1.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 100
6.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 101
6.3 CMP PAD PLANT CLOSURES 102
6.4 NEW ENTRANTS 103
6.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS 104
6.6 CMP PAD M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS 105
6.7 CMP PAD PRICING TRENDS 106
6.8 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 107
6.8 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT, CONTINUED 108
7 MATERIAL SUB-TIER SUPPLY 109
7.1 ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 110
7.2 VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 111
7.3 RAW SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTORS 112
7.4 RAW MATERIALS M&A ACTIVITY 113
7.5 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 114
7.6 ABRASIVE SUPPLY CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 115
7.7 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW 116
7.8 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 117
7.9 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 118
7.10 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 119
8 SUPPLIER PROFILES 120
NANOPHASE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION 3M COMPANY
ABRASIVE TECHNOLOGY
ACE NANOCHEM
ANJI MICRO SHANGHAI
ASAHI GLASS
…and 20+ more
9 APPENDIX 329
APPENDIX A: CMP CONSUMABLES OVERVIEW 330
APPENDIX B: TECHNICAL TRENDS IN SIC 332
APPENDIX C: PAD MANUFACTURING COST DRIVERS 338
FIGURES
FIGURE1: FORECASTED 2023 MARKET SIZE 10
FIGURE 2: CMP CONSUMABLES FORECAST 11
FIGURE 3: CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED DEVICES 12
FIGURE 4: 2022 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE 13
FIGURE 5: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE BY APPLICATION 14
FIGURE 6: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 15
FIGURE 7: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 16
FIGURE 8: CMOS TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 17
FIGURE 9: LIMITATIONS OF FS-PDN 18
FIGURE 10: 2D DEVICE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION 18
FIGURE 11: 2022 SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 19
FIGURE 12: 2022 PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 20
FIGURE 13: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2022) 31
FIGURE 14: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 32
FIGURE 15: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI)* 33
FIGURE 16: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS 34
FIGURE 17: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 35
FIGURE 18: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 36
FIGURE 19: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 37
FIGURE 20: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 38
FIGURE 21: SEMICONDUCTOR AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION 39
FIGURE 22: TSMC PHOENIX INVESTMENT ESTIMATED WILL BE US $40 B 41
FIGURE 23: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 US$366 B 42
FIGURE 24: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 44
FIGURE 25: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY SEGMENT (US$ B) 45
FIGURE 26: OVERVIEW OF ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 46
FIGURE 27: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE FEB. 2023 AND ARTIST RENDERING (ON BOTTOM) 47
FIGURE 28: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 50
FIGURE 29: PORT OF LA 51
FIGURE 30: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS** 52
FIGURE 31: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 53
FIGURE 32: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE FOR 2022 55
FIGURE 33: NUMBER OF CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY NODES 56
FIGURE 34: COMPARISON OF METALS RESISTIVITIES BY DIMENSION 57
FIGURE 35: 14NM VS. 7NM METALLIZATION TECHNIQUES 57
FIGURE 36: 3D NAND ROADMAP BY NODE 58
FIGURE 37: STACKING FOR 3D NAND 59
FIGURE 38: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 60
FIGURE 39: KEY TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 61
FIGURE 40: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 62
FIGURE 41: SILICON CARBIDE-BASED POWER DEVICE 64
FIGURE 42: DEFECTS IN SILICON CARBIDE SUBSTRATES AND EPI WAFERS 65
FIGURE 43: SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 65
FIGURE 44: BATCH POLISH VS. CMP 66
FIGURE 45: SLURRY AND PAD REVENUE BY HQ REGION 67
FIGURE 46: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 75
FIGURE 47: FORECASTED SLURRY VOLUME DEMAND 76
FIGURE 48: SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES IN 2022 78
FIGURE 49: OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 79
FIGURE 50: STI CMP PROCESS 80
FIGURE 51: HKMG/FRONT-END SLURRY MARKET SHARES 81
FIGURE 52: POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET SHARES 83
FIGURE 53: MEMS CMP CROSS SECTION 84
FIGURE 54: OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 85
FIGURE 55: TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET SHARES 86
FIGURE 56: CU-BULK SLURRY MARKET SHARES 87
FIGURE 57: CU-BARRIER CMP SLURRY MARKET SHARE 88
FIGURE 58: NEW METALS SLURRY MARKET SHARES 90
FIGURE 59: CU BPR SLURRY MARKET SHARES 91
FIGURE 60: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 99
FIGURE 61: CMP PAD REVENUE BY WAFER SIZE 100
FIGURE 62: FORECASTED PAD USAGE 101
FIGURE 63: CMP FOR IC MANUFACTURING PROCESS 331
FIGURE 64: IC1000 LIKE PAD CROSS-SECTION 340
FIGURE 65: IC1000 SEM CROSS-SECTION 341
TABLES
TABLE 1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 29
TABLE 2: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 30
TABLE 3: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES MARKET SPENDING 2022 40
TABLE 4 & 5: SILICON CARBIDE WAFER MANUFACTURERS AND CONSUMABLES SUPPLIERS 63
TABLE 6: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS 68
TABLE 7: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS BY SUPPLIER HEADQUARTER REGION 69
TABLE 8: 2022 SLURRY MARKET LEADERS AND TAM BY APPLICATION 77
TABLE 9: PAD SUPPLIERS 108
TABLE 10: ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 110
TABLE 11: VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 111
TABLE 12: PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL PROPERTY COMPARISON OF SI AND SIC 333
[プレスリリース]CMP Consumables Facing Market Correction after Strong 2022
June 6, 2023
Advance logic developments drive new CMP consumables opportunities
San Diego, CA, June 6, 2023: TECHCET — the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information on semiconductor supply chains — is forecasting a -2.4% reduction in the 2023 CMP Consumables market composed of pads and slurry following strong performance in 2022. This slight drop is the result of an oversupply in DRAM and general corrections within the market. Despite the drop, the CMP Consumables market is expecting an overall upward 5-year CAGR of 5.2%, as mentioned in the the newly released CMP Consumables Critical Materials Report™. During this period, CMP Consumables for copper, tungsten, and oxides will continue to represent most of the market. The largest growth rate in demand over the next 5 years is expected for new metals (Co, Mo, and Ru) pads and slurry combined.
Developments in new methodologies like GAA/Nanosheet, ForkSheet in logic are driving a new set of challenges for thinner layers and better thickness control. Additionally, new BEOL materials, such as cobalt, ruthenium, molybdenum are being evaluated to replace W and some minimum dimension Cu interconnects levels. Because of this, new CMP consumables are required to process these materials.
Device makers are continuing to look for ways to reduce consumables costs. In the current market climate with high inflation rates and the high degree of customization, there is little chance that prices will go down. Possible supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical events in China and Russia could also cause delays and price increases as suppliers work to qualify alternate sources of supply for raw materials that they were importing from these countries. Despite these hurdles, there could be an upside for CMP consumable suppliers as “local” equipment suppliers gain traction since they will need to develop process recipes, which could result in an increase in consumables demand.
ABOUT TECHCET: TECHCET CA LLC is an advisory services firm expert in market and supply-chain analysis of electronic materials for the semiconductor, display, solar/PV, and LED industries. TECHCET offers consulting, subscription service, and reports, including the Critical Materials Council (CMC) of semiconductor fabricators and Data Subscription Service (DSS). F
CMP消耗品の供給はひっ迫し、コストは増大の見込み ～最先端製品が従来製品の代替品へ～
加州サンディエゴ、2022年5月24日
電子材料ビジネスおよび技術情報を提供するアドバイザリー企業であるTECHCETは半導体向け化学機械平坦化（CMP）消耗品市場は2021年に30億ドルに達し、約13％で成長したことを発表しました。CMP市場はスラリーとパッドの両市場が2022年に33億ドル、9％で成長し、2026年までには年平均成長率（CAGR）6％以上の成長を遂げることが予測されています。
先端デバイスによって生産が強化され、CMP加工は増加し続けています。ロジック市場ではCMP手順と金属ゲート向けの新規材料の導入が増加し、FinFETからGAAの移行が起きていることがTECHCETのCMP消耗品に関する調査レポートで指摘されています。コバルト、ルテニウム、モリブデン、ニッケル、多様な合金が検討範囲として挙げられます。タングステン、銅、コバルトのパッドおよびスラリーの需要は先端DRAMと3DNANDが後押ししています。またウエハーの上位階層型の生産強化が開始されることで、先進3DNANDも成長促進要因となっています。
酸化物やタングステンなどの材料に共通に使われるスラリーとパッドは入手可能なものの、従来品向けの消耗品への需要は下がり続けるとみられています。新材料が従来品への使用に置き換わることで、サプライヤの一部は従来の消耗品生産ラインを停止し、従来型の材料向けの消耗品の入手量は減っていくでしょう。これにより競争が緩和化し、従来型のCMP製品の価格が吊り上げられる可能性が出てきます。
スラリー価格、特に特殊スラリーと小口注文分は今後1～2年以上は維持あるいは値上げが予測されています。ナノセリアスラリーについては、表面性状の改善と欠陥制御の必要性が促進要因となり、需要が増加しています。
パッド市場における競争減により、パッド価格に動きは見られないでしょう。小口注文は特別価格になるでしょう。しかしながら、中国でパッドサプライヤーが新規参入すれば中国国内で地位を確立し、中国における競合社のパッド価格の値下げにつながるかもしれません。
（原文）CMP Consumables – Supply is Tight and Costs Expected to Rise
as legacy products are replaced by leading edge
San Diego, CA, May 24, 2022: TECHCET—the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information— announced the Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP) consumables market for semiconductors grew almost 13% in 2021 to reach US$3.0 billion. The CMP market, including both slurries and pads, will grow almost 9% in 2022 to US$3.3 billion, and the forecast through 2026 shows this market growing at over a 6% CAGR.
CMP processes continue to increase as leading-edge devices ramp up in production. The logic market is seeing a shift from FinFET to GAA, which increases the number of CMP steps and the introduction of new materials for the metal gate, as indicated in “TECHCET’s 2022 Critical Materials Report™ on CMP Consumables.” Under consideration are cobalt, ruthenium, molybdenum, nickel, and various alloys. Strong growth in leading edge DRAM and 3DNAND is boosting demand for tungsten, copper and cobalt pads and slurries. Growth is also driven by advanced 3DNAND as wafer starts for higher layer generations ramp up in production.
Demand will continue to slow for consumables for legacy products, though slurries and pads for commonly used materials, such as oxide and tungsten, will continue to be available. As new materials replace those used in legacy products, availability of consumables for the legacy materials will decrease as some suppliers will discontinue their consumables legacy product lines. This will result in less competition and will likely drive-up prices for legacy CMP products.
Slurry prices are expected to hold or increase, particularly on specialty slurries and on small quantity orders over the next year or two. Nanoceria slurries are in growing demand, driven by the need for improved surface quality and defectivity control.
Due to the lack of competition in the pad market, pad prices will hold firm. Small quantity orders will receive a premium price. However, if the new pad supplier entrants in China gain position in the local market, it could soften prices for competitive pads in China.