CMP消耗品 2022年:スラリーとパッド

出版:Techcet(テクセット) 出版年月:2022年6月

CMP CONSUMABLES – SLURRY and PAD MARKETS
CMP消耗品市場調査 2022年:スラリーとパッド

種別 英文調査報告書
ページ数 125
図表数 74
価格(サイトライセンス) US$8,900

※Chapter 8(Supplier Profiles)のページ数は含まれていません。

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Techcet「CMP CONSUMABLES – SLURRY and PAD MARKETS」は半導体デバイス製造に使用されるCMP消耗品のうち、スラリーとパッド市場を調査・分析し、技術関連情報や企業情報を掲載しています。

当レポートの特長

  • 市場ダイナミクス全般に関する情報
  • サプライチェーンマネージャー、生産統合、R&D管理者、事業開発、財務アナリストに関する情報
  • 半導体デバイス製造に使用されるCMPパッド、スラリー、ディスクに関連したサプライチェーン、市場、技術動向に関する情報
  • 主要サプライヤ、材料供給における問題/動向、サプライヤの市場シェア評価、材料市場予測

主な掲載内容

  1. エグゼクティブサマリー
  2. 調査範囲、目的、メソドロジー
  3. 半導体産業の市場状況と展望
    1. 世界経済
    2. 電子製品市場
    3. 半導体製造の成長と拡大
    4. 政策&貿易引動向と影響
    5. 半導体材料展望
  4. CMP消耗品市場動向
  5. CMPスラリーサプライヤーの市場シェア
  6. CMPパッド市場の統計データと予測
    1. CMPパッド収益の5年予測
    2. CMPパッド台数の5年予測
    3. CMPパッド工場の閉鎖
    4. 新規参入者
    5. 存続の危機にあるサプライヤまたは部品/生産ライン
    6. CMPパッドのM&Aアクティビティ、告知、パートナーシップ
    7. CMPパッドの価格動向
    8. テクセットのアナリストにより評価
  7. 材料のサブティア供給
  8. サプライヤー情報
  9. 別表

Description

  • Contains information on the overall market dynamics
  • Provides focused information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
  • Includes supply-chain, market, and technical trends information relating to CMP pads, slurry, and disks as used for semiconductor device manufacturing.
  • Covers information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the material segments

Analyst

Sarah Okada

Ms. Okada has worked in leadership roles in the semiconductor industry for over 25 years focusing on product management, marketing and technical sales of substrate and device manufacturing equipment.

Ms. Okada started in the semiconductor industry in 1995 in the applications development group at Strasbaugh, a supplier of CMP and grinding equipment.

In 2013, she was promoted to director of sales and marketing for Strasbaugh where she incorporated marketing and sales best practices to develop a new brand for Strasbaugh and launched a successful new HVM grinding product.

Ms. Okada was key in the acquisition of Strasbaugh’s technology for Revasum in 2016, where she served as VP of marketing and product management and launched the industry’s first fully automated SiC substrate polisher.

Since joining Nova in November 2020, Ms. Okada has been leading work on the SIMS-based METRION platform and was recently promoted to product marketing director

Ms Okada holds a bachelor’s degree in Marketing and Finance from the University of Oregon.


[プレスリリース]

CMP消耗品の供給はひっ迫し、コストは増大の見込み ~最先端製品が従来製品の代替品へ~

加州サンディエゴ、2022年5月24日

電子材料ビジネスおよび技術情報を提供するアドバイザリー企業であるTECHCETは半導体向け化学機械平坦化(CMP)消耗品市場は2021年に30億ドルに達し、約13%で成長したことを発表しました。CMP市場はスラリーとパッドの両市場が2022年に33億ドル、9%で成長し、2026年までには年平均成長率(CAGR)6%以上の成長を遂げることが予測されています。

CMP消耗品のセグメント別収益 - TECHCET

先端デバイスによって生産が強化され、CMP加工は増加し続けています。ロジック市場ではCMP手順と金属ゲート向けの新規材料の導入が増加し、FinFETからGAAの移行が起きていることがTECHCETのCMP消耗品に関する調査レポートで指摘されています。コバルト、ルテニウム、モリブデン、ニッケル、多様な合金が検討範囲として挙げられます。タングステン、銅、コバルトのパッドおよびスラリーの需要は先端DRAMと3DNANDが後押ししています。またウエハーの上位階層型の生産強化が開始されることで、先進3DNANDも成長促進要因となっています。

酸化物やタングステンなどの材料に共通に使われるスラリーとパッドは入手可能なものの、従来品向けの消耗品への需要は下がり続けるとみられています。新材料が従来品への使用に置き換わることで、サプライヤの一部は従来の消耗品生産ラインを停止し、従来型の材料向けの消耗品の入手量は減っていくでしょう。これにより競争が緩和化し、従来型のCMP製品の価格が吊り上げられる可能性が出てきます。

スラリー価格、特に特殊スラリーと小口注文分は今後1~2年以上は維持あるいは値上げが予測されています。ナノセリアスラリーについては、表面性状の改善と欠陥制御の必要性が促進要因となり、需要が増加しています。

パッド市場における競争減により、パッド価格に動きは見られないでしょう。小口注文は特別価格になるでしょう。しかしながら、中国でパッドサプライヤーが新規参入すれば中国国内で地位を確立し、中国における競合社のパッド価格の値下げにつながるかもしれません。

(原文)CMP Consumables – Supply is Tight and Costs Expected to Rise

as legacy products are replaced by leading edge

San Diego, CA, May 24, 2022: TECHCET—the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information— announced the Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP) consumables market for semiconductors grew almost 13% in 2021 to reach US$3.0 billion. The CMP market, including both slurries and pads, will grow almost 9% in 2022 to US$3.3 billion, and the forecast through 2026 shows this market growing at over a 6% CAGR.

CMP processes continue to increase as leading-edge devices ramp up in production. The logic market is seeing a shift from FinFET to GAA, which increases the number of CMP steps and the introduction of new materials for the metal gate, as indicated in “TECHCET’s 2022 Critical Materials Report™ on CMP Consumables.” Under consideration are cobalt, ruthenium, molybdenum, nickel, and various alloys. Strong growth in leading edge DRAM and 3DNAND is boosting demand for tungsten, copper and cobalt pads and slurries. Growth is also driven by advanced 3DNAND as wafer starts for higher layer generations ramp up in production.

Demand will continue to slow for consumables for legacy products, though slurries and pads for commonly used materials, such as oxide and tungsten, will continue to be available. As new materials replace those used in legacy products, availability of consumables for the legacy materials will decrease as some suppliers will discontinue their consumables legacy product lines. This will result in less competition and will likely drive-up prices for legacy CMP products.

Slurry prices are expected to hold or increase, particularly on specialty slurries and on small quantity orders over the next year or two. Nanoceria slurries are in growing demand, driven by the need for improved surface quality and defectivity control.

Due to the lack of competition in the pad market, pad prices will hold firm. Small quantity orders will receive a premium price. However, if the new pad supplier entrants in China gain position in the local market, it could soften prices for competitive pads in China.


目次

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

1.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET OVERVIEW 12
1.2 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE TRENDS 13
1.3 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING CMP CONSUMABLES OUTLOOK 14
1.4 YEAR 2021 IN REVIEW 15
1.5 CMP CONSUMABLES FORECASTS BY MATERIAL SEGMENT 16
1.5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 17
1.5.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 18
1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 19
1.7 SLURRY SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 20
1.8 PAD SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 21
1.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 22

2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 24

2.1 SCOPE 25
2.2 PURPOSE 26
2.3 METHODOLOGY 27
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 28

3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 29

3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 30
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 32
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 33
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 34
3.2 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 35
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 36
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 37
3.2.1.1 ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) MARKET TRENDS 38
3.2.1.2 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 39
3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 40
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 41
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 42
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 43
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 44
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 45
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 46
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 47
3.4.1 POLICY AND TRADE ISSUES 48
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 49
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION SCHEDULES? 50
3.5.2 CONTINUED LOGISTICS ISSUES PLAGUE THE WESTERN WORLD 51
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2026 52
3.5.4 TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST 53
3.5.5 TECHCET’S MATERIALS FORECAST 54

4 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 55

4.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 56
4.2 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 57
4.2.1 3D NAND ROADMAP 59
4.2.2 3D NAND XTACKING 60
4.2.3 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 61
4.2.4 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING CONTINUE 62
4.2.5 CMP FOR TSV 63
4.2.6 CHALLENGES FACING REDISTRIBUTION LAYER (RDL) PROCESSES 64
4.3 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR 65
4.3.1 SILICON CARBIDE POWER DEVICE REVENUE 66
4.3.2 SILICON CARBIDE WAFER SUPPLY AND DEMAND 67
4.3.3 CMP OF SILICON CARBIDE 68
4.3.4 SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 69
4.3.5 CMP CHALLENGES IN SILICON CARBIDE 70
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS 71
4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 72
4.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 74
4.5.1 EHS ISSUES FOR NEW MATERIALS 75
4.5.2 LOGISTIC ISSUES 76
4.5.3 EHS ISSUES FOR SLURRY DISPOSAL, RECYCLING AND RECLAIM 77

5 CMP SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 78

5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 79
5.2 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 80
5.3 CMP SLURRY MARKET LEADERS 81
5.3.1 TOTAL SLURRY MARKET SHARE 82
5.3.2 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET 83
5.3.2.1 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET, CONTINUED 84
5.3.3 HKMG SLURRY MARKET 85
5.3.3.1 HKMG SLURRY MARKET, CONTINUED 86
5.3.4 POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET 87
5.3.4.1 POLYSILICON SLURRY FOR MEMS 88
5.3.5 OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET 89
5.3.6 TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET 90
5.3.7 CU BULK SLURRY MARKET 91
5.3.8 COPPER BARRIER SLURRY MARKET 92
5.3.8.1 COPPER BARRIER SLURRIES, CONTINUED 93
5.3.9 NEW METALS SLURRY MARKET 94
5.4 CMP SLURRY M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS 95
5.5 CMP SLURRY PLANT CLOSURES 97
5.6 NEW ENTRANTS 98
5.7 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK
OF DISCONTINUATIONS 99
5.8 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS 100
5.9 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF CMP SLURRY MARKET 101

6 CMP PAD MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 103

6.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 104
6.1.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 105
6.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 106
6.3 CMP PAD PLANT CLOSURES 107
6.4 NEW ENTRANTS 108
6.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK
OF DISCONTINUATIONS 109
6.6 CMP PAD M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS 110
6.7 CMP PAD PRICING TRENDS 111
6.8 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 112

7 MATERIAL SUB-TIER SUPPLY 114

7.1 ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 115
7.2 VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 116
7.3 RAW SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTORS 117
7.4 RAW MATERIALS M&A ACTIVITY 118
7.5 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 119
7.6 ABRASIVE SUPPLY CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 120
7.7 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW 121
7.8 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 122
7.9 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 123
7.10 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 124

8 SUPPLIER PROFILES 125

ACE NANOCHEM
ANJI MICRO SHANGHAI
ASASHI GLASS
BASF
CABOT MICROELECTRONICS
DUPONT
EMINESS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(PUREON)
FERRO
FUJIFILM PLANAR SOLUTIONS
FUJIMI CORP.
…and many more

9 APPENDIX 331

APPENDIX A: CMP CONSUMABLES OVERVIEW 332
APPENDIX B: TECHNICAL TRENDS IN SIC 129
APPENDIX C: PAD MANUFACTURING COST DRIVERS 340

Figures & Tables

FIGURE 1: FORECASTED 2022 MARKET SIZE 12
FIGURE 2: CMP CONSUMABLES FORECAST 13
FIGURE 3: CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED DEVICES 14
FIGURE 4: 2021 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE 15
FIGURE 5: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE BY APPLICATION 16
FIGURE 6: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 17
FIGURE 7: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 18
FIGURE 8: 2D DEVICE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION 19
FIGURE 9: 2021 SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 20
FIGURE 10: 2021 PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 21
FIGURE 11: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS
SUPPLY CHAIN (2021) 32
FIGURE 12: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 33
FIGURE 13: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX* 34
FIGURE 14: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 35
FIGURE 15: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 36
FIGURE 16: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST, 2021, Q3 37
FIGURE 17: GLOBAL EV TRENDS 38
FIGURE 18: SEMICONDUCTOR SPEND PER VEHICLE TYPE 39
FIGURE 19: TSMC CONSTRUCTION SITE IN ARIZONA. 41
FIGURE 20: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 > US$460 B 42
FIGURE 21: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS
OF THE WORLD 43
FIGURE 22: 3-MONTH AVERAGE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT BILLINGS 44
FIGURE 23: OVERVIEW OF DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 45
FIGURE 24: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 50
FIGURE 25: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE 52
FIGURE 26: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE 53
FIGURE 27: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 54
FIGURE 28: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE FOR 2022 56
FIGURE 29: NUMBER OF CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY
NODES 57
FIGURE 30: 14NM VS. 3NM METALLIZATION TECHNIQUES 58
FIGURE 31: COMPARISON OF MATERIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF METALS 58
FIGURE 32: XTACKING HYBRID BONDING TECHNOLOGY FOR 3D NAND 60
FIGURE 33: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 61
FIGURE 34: KEY TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 62
FIGURE 35: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 63
FIGURE 36: RDL CHALLENGES FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING 64
FIGURE 37: POWER SIC DEVICE MARKET REVENUES 66
FIGURE 38: SILICON CARBIDE WAFER DEMAND BY APPLICATION 67
FIGURE 39: SILICON CARBIDE-BASED POWER DEVICE 68
FIGURE 40: DEFECTS IN SILICON CARBIDE SUBSTRATES AND EPI WAFERS 69
FIGURE 41: SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 69
FIGURE 42: BATCH POLISH VS. CMP 70
FIGURE 43: SLURRY AND PAD REVENUE BY HQ REGION 71
FIGURE 44: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 79
FIGURE 45: FORECASTED SLURRY VOLUME DEMAND 80
FIGURE 46: SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES IN 2021 82
FIGURE 47: OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 83
FIGURE 48: STI CMP PROCESS 84
FIGURE 49: HKMG/FRONT-END SLURRY MARKET SHARES 85
FIGURE 50: POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET SHARES 87
FIGURE 51: MEMS CMP CROSS SECTION 88
FIGURE 52: OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 89
FIGURE 53: TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET SHARES 90
FIGURE 54: CU-BULK SLURRY MARKET SHARES 91
FIGURE 55: CU-BARRIER CMP SLURRY MARKET SHARE 92
FIGURE 56: NEW METALS SLURRY MARKET SHARES 94
FIGURE 57: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 104
FIGURE 58: CMP PAD REVENUE BY WAFER SIZE 105
FIGURE 59: FORECASTED PAD USAGE 106
FIGURE 60: CMP FOR IC MANUFACTURING PROCESS 333
FIGURE 61: IC1000 LIKE PAD CROSS-SECTION 342
FIGURE 62: IC1000 SEM CROSS-SECTION 343

TABLE 1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 30
TABLE 2: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 31
TABLE 3: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION
SERVICES FORECAST 2021 40
TABLE 4: 3D NAND ROADMAP BY NODE 59
TABLE 5: SILICON CARBIDE WAFER MANUFACTURERS 65
TABLE 6: CONSUMABLES SUPPLIERS 66
TABLE 7: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS 72
TABLE 8: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS BY SUPPLIER
HEADQUARTER REGION 73
TABLE 9: 2022 SLURRY MARKET LEADERS AND TAM BY APPLICATION 81
TABLE 10: ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 115
TABLE 11: VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 116
TABLE 12: PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL PROPERTY COMPARISON
OF SI AND SIC 335


 

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