CVD／ALD／SOD：誘電前駆体レポート　2023年

出版：TECHCET（テクセット）　出版年月：2023年6月

CVD/ALD/SOD: DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS
CVD／ALD／SOD：誘電前駆体レポート　2023年

※Chapter 7（Supplier Profiles）のページ数は含まれていません。

レポート目次　　お問合せ・ご注文　価格・納期について

TECHCET「CVD／ALD／SOD：誘電前駆体レポート　2023年 – CVD/ALD/SOD: DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS」は半導体製造向け化学気相成長（CVD）／原子層堆積法（ALD）／SOD前駆体（プリカーサー）を調査・分析しています。また材料サプライチェーンにおける課題や動向、サプライヤの市場シェアについての評価、材料セグメント予測など、誘電前駆体関連の主要サプライヤ情報を提供しています。

レポート概要

• 無機プリカーサーおよび有機プリカーサーに関する市場および技術動向に関する情報を提供。ILDs＆Low-k絶縁体、ハードマスク、側壁スペーサ、エッチストップ層を含むCVD、ALD、SOD用途についても解説。
• サプライチェーンマネージャー、生産統合、R&D管理者、事業開発、財務アナリストに関する情報
• 主要サプライヤ、材料供給における問題／動向、サプライヤの市場シェア評価、材料市場予測

主な掲載内容

1. エグゼクティブサマリー
2. 範囲、目的、調査手法
3. 半導体産業の市場状況と展望
   1. 世界経済
   2. 電子製品セグメント別チップ売上
   3. 半導体製造の成長と拡大
   4. 政策＆貿易動向と影響
   5. 半導体材料展望
4. 前駆体市場動向
   1. 市場動向
   2. 供給能力と需要、投資
   3. 誘電前駆体に関する出願：IP出願動向／誘電加工用途と研究開発
   4. 地域別動向
   5. CVDとALD装置市場
   6. 技術的促進要因／材料の変遷と移行：デバイスタイプ別
   7. 半導体加工および材料動向
   8. EHSと物流問題
   9. 標準実装／バルブ種類における変化
5. 市場状況と予測
   1. 実績および5年予測
   2. 誘電前駆体集積：2021-2027年
   3. M＆A活動
   4. 新規工場
   5. サプライヤの工場閉鎖：報告なし
   6. 新規参入者：DRY RESIST CONSORTIUM
6. サブティア材料サプライチェーン
7. サプライヤ情報

Overview

This report provides market and technical trend information CVD/ALD dielectric and SOD precursors. For the last 20 years, there have been many research papers and patents published regarding ALD and CVD precursors specifically for the semiconductor industry. This report includes detail on the development path and roadmaps for new precursors and any current EHS and regulatory hurdles for these materials to enter into high volume manufacturing (HVM). Forecasts are provided on precursors of all types, with a focus is on the leading-edge front end of the line insulating and conductive materials, including sacrificial layers, low-κ dielectrics, hard masks, mandrel, and etch stop layers. These process areas are of interest because of the high growth potential associated with leading-edge logic <45 nm, 28 nm to 10/7 nm nodes, and the future 5 & 3 nm nodes, as well as advanced DRAM and 3DNAND volatile and non-volatile memories.

• Provides market and technical trend information on organic and inorganic precursors, addressing CVD, ALD, and SOD applications including ILDs & low-κ dielectrics, hard masks, sidewall spacers and etch stop layers
• Provides focused information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
• Covers information about key dielectric precursor suppliers, issues/trends in the material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the electronics material segments
• Single User License – provides 1 portal access login to techcet.com for one person, using 2FA (two-factor authentication). The 1 user has freedom to use any of the data in the purchased report for internal or external presentations, with proper copyright attribution.*

Analyst

Jonas Sundqvist, Ph.D.

• Sr. Technology Analyst of TECHCET— covers Electronic Gases and ALD & CVD precursors and related technologies, and the co-chair of the Annual Critical Materials Council (CMC) Conference. His over 20 years of work experience includes Group Leader of the Thin-Film Technologies Group at The Fraunhofer Institute for Ceramic Technologies and Systems (IKTS) in Germany, Clean Room Operations Manager for Lund Nano Lab, Lund University in Sweden and Group Leader of the ALD & High-k devices group at Fraunhofer’s Center Nanoelectronic Technologies (CNT) in Germany, which included 28nm node work for GLOBALFOUNDRIES Fab1.
• Previously, at Infineon Memory Development Centre (MDC), he developed high-k and metal nitride ALD processes, and at Qimonda, he was a materials manager focused on the ALD/CVD precursors supply-chain. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.S. in inorganic chemistry from Uppsala University, Sweden & Institute for Micromanufacturing, Louisiana Teche, USA, a B.S. in electrical and electronics engineering from Lars Kagg, and nine patents and 40 related scientific publications.
• Jonas Sundqvist is on the Scientific Committee for AVS ALD and has co-

目次

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

1.1 REGIONAL TRENDS – DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 12
1.2 PRECURSOR MARKET – HISTORICAL AND 5-YEAR FORECAST 13
1.3 DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 (M USD) 14
1.4 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 15
1.5 CVD AND ALD EQUIPMENT MARKET 16
1.6 ANALYST ASSESSMENT – PRECURSORS 17

2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 19

2.1 SCOPE 20
2.2 PURPOSE 21
2.3 METHODOLOGY 22
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 23

3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 24

3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 25
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 27
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 28
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 29
3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 – SLOWER TO NEGATIVE SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 30
3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 31
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 32
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 33
3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 36
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 37
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 38
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 40
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 41
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 42
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 43
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 44
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 45
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION
SCHEDULES? 46
3.5.2 LOGISTICS ISSUES EASED DOWN 47
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2027 48
3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 49

4 PRECURSOR MARKET TRENDS 50

4.1 MARKET TRENDS 51
4.1.1 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS 53
4.1.2 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS LOGIC 54
4.1.3 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS DRAM 55
4.1.4 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS NAND 56
4.2 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 57
4.2.1 WF6 DEMAND DRIVERS 59
4.3 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 60
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS – DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 61
4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 62
4.5 CVD AND ALD EQUIPMENT MARKET 64
4.5.1 WFE FORECAST: ALL TYPES 65
4.5.2 WFE FORECAST: DEPOSITION, ETCH & CLEAN, LITHOGRAPHY,
METROLOGY ETC. 66
4.6 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS
BY DEVICE TYPE 67
4.6.1 GENERAL TREND LAST DECADE GOING FROM
PVD & LPCVD TO PECVD & ALD 68
4.6.2 ADVANCED LOGIC NODE HVM ESTIMATE 69
4.6.3 DRAM NODE HVM ESTIMATE 75
4.6.4 3D NAND NODE HVM ESTIMATE 78
4.6.5 SUMMARY OF OPPORTUNITIES BY DEVICE SEGMENT 83
4.7 SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESS & MATERIALS TRENDS 84
4.7.1 ETCH PROCESS BY DEVICE TYPE—ATOMIC LAYER ETCHING ALE 85
4.7.2 AREA SELECTIVE DEPOSITION 95
4.7.3 DIRECTED SELF ASSEMBLY (DSA) AND EUV 96
4.7.4 DIRECT SELF ASSEMBLY (DSA) AND EUV 97
4.7.5 2D TRANSITION METAL DICHALCOGENIDES (TMD) 98
4.7.6 DRY RESIST FOR EUV 99
4.7.7 UNDERLAYERS FOR EUV RESIST 102
4.7.8 OTHER APPLICATIONS – OPTICS 104
4.8 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 105
4.8.1 GREEN HOUSE GASES FROM SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION 106
4.8.2 EUV AND ENERGY 109
4.8.3 ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ATOMIC LAYER
DEPOSITION (ALD) PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS TO LOWER IT 110
4.9 CHANGES IN STANDARD PACKAGING/VALVE TYPES 111

5 SEGMENT MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 112

5.1 PRECURSOR MARKET – HISTORICAL AND 5-YEAR FORECAST 113
5.2 DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 (M USD) 114
5.2.1 ASSESSMENT DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 115
5.3 M&A ACTIVITIES 117
5.3.1 M&A ACTIVITIES – MERCK & MECARO 118
5.4 NEW PLANTS 119
5.5 SUPPLIER PLANT CLOSURES – NONE REPORTED 124
5.6 NEW ENTRANTS – DRY RESIST CONSORTIUM 125

6 SUB TIER MATERIAL SUPPLY CHAIN 126

6.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: INTRODUCTION 127
6.2 LOGISTICS 128
6.2.1 LOGISTICS, CONTINUED 129
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS – NONE REPORTED 130
6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW – NONE REPORTED 131
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 132

7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 133

ADEKA CORPORATION
AIR LIQUIDE (MAKER, PURIFIER, SUPPLIER)
AZMAX CO., LTD
CITY CHEMICAL LLC
DNF CO., LTD
…and 20+ more

FIGURES & TABLES

FIGURES

FIGURE 1: HARDMASK, LOW K DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS
REGIONAL SHARES 2022 12
FIGURE 2: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 13
FIGURE 3 DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR MARKET 2021 TO 2027 14
FIGURE 4: CVD AND ALD TOTAL EQUIPMENT MARKET 2022 USD 17-18 BILLION 16
FIGURE 5: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2022) 27
FIGURE 6: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 28
FIGURE 7: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI)* 29
FIGURE 8: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS 30
FIGURE 9: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 31
FIGURE 10: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 32
FIGURE 11: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 33
FIGURE 12: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 34
FIGURE 13: SEMICONDUCTOR AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION 35
FIGURE 14: TSMC PHOENIX INVESTMENT ESTIMATED WILL BE US $40 B 37
FIGURE 15: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 US$366 B 38
FIGURE 16: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 40
FIGURE 17: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY SEGMENT (US$ B) 41
FIGURE 18: OVERVIEW OF ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 42
FIGURE 19: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE FEB. 2023 AND ARTIST RENDERING (ON BOTTOM) 43
FIGURE 20: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 46
FIGURE 21: PORT OF LA 47
FIGURE 22: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS** 48
FIGURE 23: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 49
FIGURE 24: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS 2021 TO 2027 53
FIGURE 25: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS LOGIC 300 MM 54
FIGURE 26: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS DRAM 300 MM 55
FIGURE 27: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS NAND 300 MM 56
FIGURE 28: 3DNAND MARKET SHARE 2022 59
FIGURE 29: HARDMASK, LOW K DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS REGIONAL SHARES 2022 61
FIGURE 30: CVD AND ALD TOTAL EQUIPMENT MARKET 2022 USD 17-18 BILLION 64
FIGURE 31: SEMI 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT FORECAST 65
FIGURE 32: 2022 TECHINSIGHTS WFE SPENDING (TOP) AND 2022 GARTNER WFE SPENDING PER NODE (BOTTOM) 66
FIGURE 33: 3D DEVICE ARCHITECTURES 68
FIGURE 34: LOGIC TECHNOLOGY NODE ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 69
FIGURE 35: SAMSUNG START 3 NM PILOT RAMP USING GAA-FET TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2022 70
FIGURE 36: IMEC 2022 LOGIC ROADMAP 71
FIGURE 37: SCALING AND LITHOGRAPHY TRENDS – A HIGH COST IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURE, ENERGY AND EMISSIONS 72
FIGURE 38: APPLIED MATERIALS CENTURA PATTERN SHAPING CLUSTER 73
FIGURE 39: DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 75
FIGURE 40: IP FILING IN THE FIELD OF 3DRAM IS ACCELERATING 76
FIGURE 41: NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 78
FIGURE 42: PATHWAYS FOR CONTINUED 3D NAND SCALING 79
FIGURE 43: 3DNAND STACK TRENDS FROM <100L TO 4 STACKS 80
FIGURE 44: MEMORY STACK CHALLENGES FOR V-NAND 81
FIGURE 45A: FINFET TO GAA TRANSISTOR DIAGRAMS SHOWING
SELECTIVE ETCHING IS NEEDED TO ADD RESS DEVICE COMPLEXITY 85
FIGURE 45B: ALE PROCESS CYCLE 85
FIGURE 46: PERIOD TABLE INDICATING CANDIDATES FOR ALE (ISOTROPIC ETCHING) 86
FIGURE 47: APPLICATION OF ALE (ISOTROPIC ETCH) 87
FIGURE 48: ALD AND ALE COMBO PROCESS 88
FIGURE 49: PLASMA AND THERMAL ALE PROCESSES 89
FIGURE 50: LAM ALE PROCESS 90
FIGURE 51: ALD / ALE PROCESS ROADMAP 91
FIGURE 52: ALE PATENT ACTIVITY BY COMPANY THROUGH 2022 92
FIGURE 53: AREA SELECTIVE SIN DEPOSITION BY ALD (AVS ASD2022) 95
FIGURE 54: DSA AND EUS PROCESSES 96
FIGURE 55: RESIST RECTIFICATION WITH DSA 97
FIGURE 56: TEM AND ARTIST RENDERING OF MONOLAYER CHANNEL FORMATION 98
FIGURE 57: EUV LITHOGRAPHY ENABLING GATE STRUCTURES AND PITCH SCALING 99
FIGURE 58: DRY RESIST FOR EUV SEM IMAGE 100
FIGURE 59: SPIN ON CARBON (SOC) DIELECTRIC FOR EUV METAL OXIDE RESISTS PATTERNS AFTER LITHO 101
FIGURE 60: UNDERLAYER (DIELECTRIC) HARDMASKS TRENDS FOR NIGH NA EUV 102
FIGURE 61: SPIN ON PRIMER (SOC) VS. HMDS PRIMER 103
FIGURE 62: GREENHOUSE GAS CONTRIBUTIONS OF CHIP FAB MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 106
FIGURE 63: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (GWP) OF VARIOUS PROCESSES AND GASES 107
FIGURE 64: CO2EQ OUTPUT FROM ETCH GASES 108
FIGURE 65: TOTAL EMISSIONS AND ENERGY USE PROJECTION PER LOGIC NODE 109
FIGURE 66: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ALD 110
FIGURE 67: SEGMENTATION OF THE AMPOULE FLEET 2020 BASED ON NUMBER OF UNITS IN THE FIELD 111
FIGURE 68: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 113
FIGURE 69: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR MARKET 2021 TO 2027 114
FIGURE 70: TEOS 116
FIGURE 71: WHAT IS EUV DRY RESIST? 125
FIGURE 72: TYPICAL NON-HALIDE LIGANDS USED FOR ALD PRECURSORS 127
FIGURE 73: EXAMPLES OF PRECURSORS SUPPLIED BY SHIP 128
FIGURE 74: OCEAN CONTAINER PRICE INDEX – JULY ‘20 TO MARCH ’23 129

TABLES

TABLE 1: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR REVENUES BY REGION (US$ M) 12
TABLE 2: 2017 TO 2027 5-YEAR CAGRS 13
TABLE 3: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 25
TABLE 4: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 26
TABLE 5: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES MARKET SPENDING 2022 36
TABLE 6: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR MARKET SIZE BY REGION 61
TABLE 7: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS 62
TABLE 8: REGIONAL PRECURSOR MARKETS 63
TABLE 9: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR LOGIC DEVICES 74
TABLE 10: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR DRAM 77
TABLE 11: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR 3DNAND 82
TABLE 12: GAS TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES BY DEVICE TYPE 83
TABLE 13: PRECURSOR 5-YEAR CAGR COMPARISON 113

May 16, 2023

Market expected to rebound with memory pricing recovery

San Diego, CA, May 16, 2023: TECHCET — the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information on semiconductor supply chains — is forecasting semiconductor precursor revenues, both for high-ƙ metal dielectrics and low-ƙ dielectrics, to increase in the 2nd half of 2023, rebounding from the current 0% growth rate. The current market flattening is due to reduced memory pricing in production (DRAM and 3DNAND), as explained in TECHCET’s ALD/CVD Precursors Critical Materials Reports™. In 2027, TECHCET expects the revenues of both the high-ƙ and low-ƙ dielectric precursors to rebound significantly, reaching ~19% growth, as shown in the graph below.

The market is forecasted to also rebound from the current wafer start downturn in 2024. With expansions in 2nm and 3nm logic devices, logic wafer starts below 45nm can reach >7% CAGR in 2027. Additionally, logic growth using more mask layers will drive the demand for metal and dielectric precursors related to patterning and low-k. DRAM is also undergoing a transition to EUV (ALD/CVD hardmasks). Continued scaling of 3DNAND by all global fabricators to above 352-368 layers (using four stacks) continues to move even higher, with expectations of >500 layers by 2030. This also continues to drive the need for dielectric stack deposition, high aspect ratio etch (RIE), and deposition (ALD).

Full implementation of High-k/Metal Gate is driving demand for hafnium precursors as well. This has led to continued supply chain issues for hafnium, especially from major surges in aerospace industry demand. While many other strategic metals and rare earths used for semiconductor production primarily rely on China, hafnium does not. “China currently produces hafnium to satisfy its own demand, and demand from the West is met by production from France, the US, and ongoing expansion in Australian mining operations in the New South Wales Dubbo project,” says Jonas Sundqvist, Senior Technology Analyst at TECHCET.