欧州の半導体向け湿式化学品のサプライチェーン

出版:Techcet(テクセット) 出版年月:2022年4月

The Impact Of Chip Expansions On The Europe Wet Chemical Supply Chain
欧州の半導体向け湿式化学品のサプライチェーン

ページ数 141
図表数 93
価格(サイトライセンス) US$8,599.00
種別 英文調査報告書

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Techcet「欧州の半導体向け湿式化学品のサプライチェーン – The Impact Of Chip Expansions On The Europe Wet Chemical Supply Chain」は欧州の半導体製造向け湿式化学品(ウェットケミカル)のサプライチェーンを調査・分析しています。

欧州におけるHCl、H2SO4、HF、NH4OH、IPAの需要と供給を調査し、数量、輸入動向と輸入依存度、ウェハ投入需要、主要欧州のチップ加工業者、新たなファブ計画、新規化学品製造投資の判断基準などの情報を提供しています。

当レポートは事業開発部長、サプライチェーン管理者、金融投資/アドバイザ、政策担当者、チップ製造をサポートする欧州の半導体サプライチェーンのダイナミクスの情報を必要とする企業/担当者にとって有益となる情報を豊富に掲載しています。

主な掲載内容

  1. エグゼクティブサマリー
  2. 最新動向
  3. 欧州半導体法(EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT)と製造工場の拡張
  4. 材料の供給、需要、不足
  5. 予想される市場調整
  6. その他の考察 – エネルギーと輸入課題
  7. 実装と清浄
  8. サプライヤ側の需要とは? ~増加する現地原料の生産量
  9. リスクと機会についてのテクセットの評価
  10. 付録:高純度化学品(UHPケミカル)製造

Overview

  • Provides focused information on the Europe chemical demand vs. supply for HCl, H2SO4, HF, NH4OH, and IPA including volumes, import trends and dependencies, wafer start demand, information of leading European chip fabricators, new fab projects, and criteria for new chemical manufacturing investments.
  •  Who should get this report? Business Development Managers, Supply-Chain Managers, Financial Investment/Advisors, Policy Makers, anyone interested in understanding the dynamic of the Europe Semiconductor Supply-Chains that support chip manufacturing.


[プレスリリース]

May 17, 2022

Europe Chemical Supply Chain – Impact of Fab Expansions

Risk of Supply Interruption Grows With an Increase in Imports

San Diego, CA, May 17, 2022:  TECHCET—the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information— examined critical materials dependencies of Europe’s expanding chip-making industry. Six high purity chemicals were identified as having the highest risk of supply interruption by major Europe chip fabricators: liquid and gas hydrochloric acid (HCl), sulfuric acid (H2SO4), hydrofluoric acid (HF), ammonia hydroxide (NH4OH), and isopropyl alcohol (IPA). Demand for these materials is expected to grow 40+% over the next 5 years, as shown in TECHCET’s study titled “The Impact Of Chip Expansions On The Europe Wet Chemical Supply Chain Report.” By 2027, more than 50% of total demand will have to be supplied by imports should there be no additional expansion in local chemical production.

Europe Chemical Supply Chain – Impact of Fab Expansions - Techcet

As indicated by the above Figure, TECHCET’s study shows that about 50% of the NH4OH is currently imported; other chemicals have a 20% to 30% dependency, with exception of HCl at < 10%. This picture will change in coming years as new fabs and new chip making capacity come online in Europe.

TECHCET anticipates a 5% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) growth in wafer starts from Europe-based semiconductor makers through 2027, with the ≤20 nm fabrication node capacity having the strongest growth. (This is nearly double the CAGR experienced over the past 5-10 years.) Europe demand of higher purity material is expected to climb as many of the fab expansions will include more leading-edge capacity. Consequently, the dependence on imported chemicals will rise unless investments are made for manufacturing ultra-high purity chemicals in Europe.

TECHCET sees the local chemical supply-chain as currently strained and challenged to try and supply the upcoming demand. Over the years, many chemical producers have shifted their focus on growing their production in Asia due to lower cost conditions and larger potential demand. This is causing a shrinking availability of locally produced chemicals.

Suppliers are open to investing in capacity and adding capabilities in Europe but find it difficult to meet corporate ROI expectations. Support is needed through co-investments, capital support (including government), and guidance and assistance with regulatory compliance. A return on investment needs to be realized as suppliers will not expand without margins or longer-term business to justify the investment. Multiyear supply commitment, predictable volumes, and reasonable expectations on pricing to spread/share risks are just a few criteria suppliers seek to address in deciding on an investment plan.

Given the supply chain constraints and chip industry growth expected in the next 3-5 years, the semiconductor makers in Europe should put in place strategies to support their demand for these key chemicals. Two key strategies should be considered: 1) look for alternative sources of supply, and 2) work with the government and/or investment community to bring more local chemical production back into Europe.


目次

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14

1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 7 15
1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 OF 7 16
1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 OF 7 17
1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 OF 7 18
1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 OF 7 19
1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 OF 7 20
1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 OF 7 21

2 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS 22

2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING SHARE 23
2.2 EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT 24
2.3 MATERIAL MARKETS 25
2.4 EUROPE WAFER START GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE 26
2.5 EUROPE INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY BY COMPANY 27
2.5.1 KEY COMPANIES EXPANDING FAB CAPACITY 28
2.6 COMPLEX AND SOMETIMES OVERLAPPING SUPPLY-CHAIN 29
2.7 SUPPLIER RANKING & OFFERING 30
2.8 CURRENT CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS – GENERAL COMMENTS 31
2.9 CHEMICAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE 32
2.9.1 COMMERCIAL CHEMICAL APPLICATIONS AND END MARKETS 33
2.10 COVID19 IMPACT 34

3 EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT AND FAB EXPANSIONS 35

3.1 EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT 36
3.1.1 EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT CONTINUED 37
3.1.2 EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT CONTINUED 38
3.1.3 INITIAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT 39
3.1.4 INITIAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT CONTINUED 40
3.2 EUROPE FAB EXPANSION INVESTMENT 41
3.3 EUROPE FAB CAPACITY EXPANSION BY NODE 42
3.3.1 FAB CAPACITY IN EUROPE BY DIAMETER 43
3.3.2 FAB CAPACITY EXPANSIONS IN EUROPE 44
3.3.3 OTHER EUROPE FAB EXPANSION NEWS 45
3.3.4 OVERALL FAB CAPACITY GROWTH 46
3.3.5 2027 FAB CAPACITY BY WAFER DIAMETER 47
3.3.6 FAB CAPACITY GROWTH BY NODE SHARE 48
3.3.6.1 2027 FAB CAPACITY BY NODE 49
3.3.7 FAB CAPACITY GROWTH SCENARIOS 50
3.4 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 51
3.4.1 CHIP EXPANSION AND CHEMICAL DEMAND 53

4 MATERIAL SUPPLY, DEMAND & SHORTFALLS 54

4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT
(ESPECIALLY HERE) 55
4.2 FAB EXPANSIONS WILL INCREASE DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL 56
4.2.1 CHEMICAL DEMAND UPSURGE- CMC SURVEY 57
4.2.2 2021 CHEMICAL SURVEY DEMAND BY SOURCE 58
4.3 CHEMICAL DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE 59
4.4 FORECASTED DEMAND OUTLOOK 60
4.4.1 SUMMARY OF PROJECTED DEMAND GROWTH BY WET
CHEMICAL TYPE 61
4.4.2 SUMMARY OF IMPORTED SUPPLY TO SUPPORT EUROPE DEMAND 62
4.4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 63
4.5 WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS 64
4.5.1 HCL (G) – EUROPE DEMAND 65
4.5.1.1 2021 HCL (G) SUPPLY BY SOURCE 66
4.5.1.2 HCL (GAS) – SUPPLY V. DEMAND 67
4.5.1.3 EUROPE SUPPLY-CHAIN – HCL (GAS) 68
4.5.2 HCL (L) – EUROPE DEMAND 69
4.5.2.1 2021 HCL (L) SUPPLY BY SOURCE 70
4.5.2.2 HCL (L) – EUROPE SUPPLY V. DEMAND 71
4.5.2.3 EUROPE SUPPLY-CHAIN – HCL (LIQUID) 72
4.5.3 SULFURIC ACID – EUROPE DEMAND 73
4.5.3.1 2021 H2SO4 SUPPLY BY SOURCE 74
4.5.3.2 H2SO4 – EUROPE SUPPLY V. DEMAND 75
4.5.3.3 EUROPE SUPPLY-CHAIN – H2SO4 76
4.5.4 HYDROFLUORIC ACID (L) – EUROPE DEMAND 77
4.5.4.1 2021 HF SUPPLY BY SOURCE 78
4.5.4.2 HF – EUROPE SUPPLY V. DEMAND 79
4.5.4.3 EUROPE SUPPLY-CHAIN – HF 80
4.5.5 SODIUM HYDROXIDE – EUROPE DEMAND & FORECAST 81
4.5.5.1 2021 NH4OH SUPPLY BY SOURCE 82
4.5.5.2 NH4OH – EUROPE SUPPLY V. DEMAND 83
4.5.5.3 EUROPE SUPPLY-CHAIN – NH4OH 84
4.5.6 IPA – EUROPE DEMAND & FORECAST 85
4.5.6.1 2021 IPA SUPPLY BY SOURCE 86
4.5.6.2 IPA – EUROPE SUPPLY V. DEMAND 87
4.5.6.3 EUROPE SUPPLY-CHAIN – IPA 88
4.6 KEY TIER 1, TIER 2, AND TIER 3 SUPPLIERS SUMMARY 89
4.7 GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE SPECIFIC CHEMICAL SUPPLY 90

5 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 91

5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 92
5.2 INTEL 93
5.3 TSMC 96
5.4 OTHER FAB INVESTMENTS IN EUROPE 99

6 OTHER CONSIDERATIONS – ENERGY & IMPORT CHALLENGES 100

6.1 ENERGY COST ISSUE 101
6.1.1 RISING ENERGY COSTS IMPACTS MANUFACTURERS 102
6.1.2 OTHER ENERGY RELATED OBSERVATIONS 103
6.2 A LIKELY GROWING DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED PRODUCTS 104
6.2.1 DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED PRODUCTS- CHINA 105
6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION” 106
6.4 AN ADDITIONAL BUT IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION 107

7 PACKAGING & PURITY 108

7.1 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMAND – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY 109
7.2 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS 110
7.3 PURITY AND CONTAINER REQUIREMENTS/ CMC SURVEY RESULTS 111
7.3.1 HCL (L) PURITY REQUIREMENT AND TRENDS 112
7.3.2 H2SO4 PURITY REQUIREMENT AND TRENDS 113
7.3.3 HF PURITY REQUIREMENT AND TRENDS 114
7.3.4 NH4OH PURITY REQUIREMENT AND TRENDS 115
7.3.5 IPA PURITY REQUIREMENT AND TRENDS 116
7.4 INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS 117
7.5 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS 118
7.6 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 119
7.6.1 HCL (G) SUPPLY BY SHIPPING CONTAINER TYPE 120
7.6.2 HCL (L) SUPPLY BY SHIPPING CONTAINER TYPE 121
7.6.3 H2SO4 SUPPLY BY SHIPPING CONTAINER TYPE 122
7.6.4 HYDROFLUORIC SUPPLY BY SHIPPING CONTAINER TYPE 123
7.6.5 NH4OH SUPPLY BY SHIPPING CONTAINER TYPE 124
7.6.6 IPA SUPPLY BY SHIPPING CONTAINER TYPE 125

8 WHAT SUPPLIERS NEED? INCREASING LOCAL MATERIAL CAPACITY 126

CHIP FABRICATORS PERSPECTIVE AND THE BURNING QUESTION… 127
EUROPEAN SUPPLIER PERSPECTIVE – DATA COLLECTION BASIS 128
COMMON THEMES AMONG SUPPLIERS 129
CONTRACT IDEAS PROPOSED BY SUPPLIERS 130
WHAT WOULD CONVINCE YOU TO BUILD NEW CHEMICAL
PRODUCTION IN EUROPE 131
ROLE FOR THE GOVERNMENT 132
SUPPLIERS CONCERNS AND NEEDS REGARDING GROWING
LOCAL PRODUCTION, 1 OF 3 133
SUPPLIERS CONCERNS AND NEEDS REGARDING GROWING
LOCAL PRODUCTION,, 2 OF 3 134
SUPPLIERS CONCERNS AND NEEDS REGARDING GROWING
LOCAL PRODUCTION, 3 OF 3 135

9 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 136

10 APPENDIX: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS 141

FIGURES & TABLES

FIGURES

FIGURE 1: EUROPE SHARE OF GLOBAL INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY 15
FIGURE 2: INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY TRENDS IN EUROPE 16
FIGURE 3: CHEMICAL DEMAND TRENDS IN EUROPE 17
FIGURE 4: EUROPE SHARE OF GLOBAL INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY 23
FIGURE 5: 2021 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT 25
FIGURE 6: EUROPE WAFER STARTS ESTIMATE BY DEVICES TYPE AND NODE,
2021-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)* 26
FIGURE 7: 2021 EUROPE INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY SHARE 27
FIGURE 8: 2027 EUROPE INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY SHARE 27
FIGURE 9: KEY EUROPE CHIP FABRICATOR EXPANSIONS 2021 TO 2027
(200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 28
FIGURE 10: A COMPLEX AND SOMETIMES OVERLAPPING SUPPLY-CHAIN
EXAMPLE – IPA 29
FIGURE 11: HYDROFLUORIC ACID PRODUCTION EUROPE 30
FIGURE 12: EUROPE CHIP FAB INVESTMENT 2022-2027 > US$61B* 41
FIGURE 13: 2021 EUROPE FAB CAPACITY BY NODE 42
FIGURE 14: 2021 EUROPE FAB CAPACITY BY DIAMETER 43
FIGURE 15: INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY TRENDS IN EUROPE 46
FIGURE 16: 2027 EUROPE CAPACITY BY WAFER DIAMETER 47
FIGURE 17: 2021 EUROPE FAB CAPACITY BREAKOUT
(25.6M 200 MM EQUIV.) 48
FIGURE 18: 2027 EUROPE FAB CAPACITY BREAKOUT
(~36M 200 MM EQUIV.) 48
FIGURE 19: INSTALLED FAB CAPACITY TRENDS IN EUROPE 50
FIGURE 20: EUROPE FAB CAPACITY BY NODE 50
FIGURE 21: EUROPE WAFER START GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE 56
FIGURE 22: IMPACT OF EXPANSIONS ON EUROPEAN CHEMICAL DEMAND 57
FIGURE 23: 2021 SOURCING DOMESTIC VS. IMPORT SOURCING 58
FIGURE 24: CHEMICAL DEMAND IN EUROPE* 60
FIGURE 25: EUROPE HCL (G) SUPPLY DEMAND VOLUME 65
FIGURE 26: 2021 EUROPE HCL (G) SUPPLY SHARE 66
FIGURE 27: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TRENDS* 67
FIGURE 28: SUPPLY-CHAIN MAPPING FOR HCL(GAS) 68
FIGURE 29: EUROPE HCL (L) SUPPLY DEMAND VOLUME 69
FIGURE 30: 2021 EUROPE HCL (L) SUPPLY SHARE 70
FIGURE 31: HCL (L) SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TRENDS 71
FIGURE 32: SUPPLY-CHAIN MAPPING FOR HCL(LIQUID) 72
FIGURE 33: EUROPE H2SO4 SUPPLY DEMAND VOLUME 73
FIGURE 34: 2021 EUROPE H2SO4 SUPPLY SHARE 74
FIGURE 35: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TRENDS 75
FIGURE 36: SUPPLY-CHAIN MAPPING FOR H2SO4 76
FIGURE 37: EUROPE HF SUPPLY DEMAND VOLUME 77
FIGURE 38: 2021 EUROPE HF SUPPLY SHARE 78
FIGURE 39: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TRENDS 79
FIGURE 40: SUPPLY-CHAIN MAPPING FOR HF 80
FIGURE 41: EUROPE NH4OH DEMAND VOLUME 81
FIGURE 42: 2021 EUROPE NH4OH SUPPLY SHARE 82
FIGURE 43: NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 83
FIGURE 44: SUPPLY-CHAIN MAPPING FOR NH4OH 84
FIGURE 45: EUROPE IPA DEMAND VOLUME 85
FIGURE 46: 2021 EUROPE IPA SUPPLY SHARE 86
FIGURE 47: IPA SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TRENDS 87
FIGURE 48: SUPPLY-CHAIN MAPPING FOR IPA 88
FIGURE 49: WHOLESALE AND RESALE ENERGY COSTS IN EUROPE ‘15-’21 101
FIGURE 50: INCREMENTAL NATURAL GAS SPEND 2021 VS. 2020 IN EUROPE 102
FIGURE 51: FREIGHT PRICE TRENDS SHOWING 7X INCREASE IN PRICE
OVER 18 MONTHS. 104
FIGURE 52: TOP CONTAINER SHIP TRADE ROUTES 106
FIGURE 53: 2021 HCL (L) BY PURITY GRADE 112
FIGURE 54: 2021 HCL (L), >99.999% (5NS) GRADE DOMESTIC VS. IMPORT 112
FIGURE 55: 2021 H2SO4 BY PURITY GRADE 113
FIGURE 56: 2021 H2SO4, >5NS GRADE DOMESTIC VS. IMPORT 113
FIGURE 57: 2021 HF BY PURITY GRADE 114
FIGURE 58: 2021 HF >5NS GRADE DOMESTIC VS. IMPORT 114
FIGURE 59: 2021 NH4OH BY PURITY GRADE 115
FIGURE 60: 2021 NH4OH >5NS GRADE DOMESTIC VS. IMPORT 115
FIGURE 61: 2021 IPA BY PURITY GRADE 116
FIGURE 62: 2021 IPA, >5NS GRADE DOMESTIC VS. IMPORT 116
FIGURE 63: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE 118
FIGURE 64: 2021 HCL (G) BY CONTAINER TYPE 120
FIGURE 65: 2021 HCL (L) BY CONTAINER TYPE 121
FIGURE 66: 2025 HCL (L) BY CONTAINER TYPE 121
FIGURE 67: 2021 H2SO4 BY CONTAINER TYPE 122
FIGURE 68: 2025 H2SO4 BY CONTAINER TYPE 122
FIGURE 69: 2021 HF BY CONTAINER TYPE 123
FIGURE 70: 2021 NH4OH BY CONTAINER TYPE 124
FIGURE 71: 2025 NH4OH BY CONTAINER TYPE 124
FIGURE 72: 2021 IPA BY CONTAINER TYPE 125
FIGURE 73: 2025 IPA BY CONTAINER TYPE 125

TABLES

TABLE 1: 2021 VS 2027 % IMPORTED SUPPLY REQUIRED 18
TABLE 2: EUROPE’S DOMESTIC TIER I LEADING SUPPLIERS 30
TABLE 3 : KEY APPLICATIONS AND END USERS FOR BASIC CHEMICALS 33
TABLE 4: POSSIBLE FAB EXPANSIONS IN EUROPE 44
TABLE 5: POTENTIAL CAPACITY ADDITION BY NODE 49
TABLE 6: IMPORT SOURCE COUNTRIES 58
TABLE 7: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND GROWTH IN THE EUROPE 2027/2021 59
TABLE 8: 2021 – 2027 CHANGE IN VOLUMES REQUIRED FOR EUROPE CHIP
PRODUCTION 61
TABLE 9: 2021 VS 2027 % IMPORTED SUPPLY REQUIRED 62
TABLE 10: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 63
TABLE 11: SUMMARY OF KEY EUROPE’S TIER 1, TIER 2 AND
TIER 3 SUPPLIERS* 89
TABLE 12: GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ON CHEMICAL SUPPLY 90
TABLE 13: SUMMARY OF INTEL FABS 94
TABLE 14: INTEL GERMANY FAB ASSUMPTIONS 95
TABLE 15: TSMC EUROPE FAB ASSUMPTIONS 98
TABLE 16: FAB EXPANSIONS FOR FOUR SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES 99
TABLE 17: SUPPLIER OBSERVATIONS CONCERNING ENERGY COSTS 103
TABLE 18: PURITY REQUIREMENTS 117
TABLE 19: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 119
TABLE 20: SUMMARY OF SUPPLIER CONCERNS ON LOCAL PRODUCTION 133


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