Rethink Energy Research – 年間サービス

Rethink Technology Research『Rethink Energy Research』はエネルギーに関する情報を一年を通じて提供する年間サービスです。従来型化石燃料からの移行が進む再生可能エネルギー市場を中心に最新情報を提供しています。

なお『Rethink Energy Research』はRethink Technology Researchが注目するエネルギー市場全般の情報を提供する「フルサービス」の他、下記特定分野毎の年間サービスも提供しています。各サービスページをご覧ください。

• Hygrogen Service – 水素サービス
• Solar Service – ソーラーサービス
• Battery Service – バッテリーサービス
• Mining & Raw Materials Service – 鉱業＆原材料サービス

提供内容

• Forecast & Data：契約期間中に出版される関連予測レポートに加え、過去1年間に出版されたレポートも閲覧いただけます。
• Weekly Analysis: エネルギー市場関する最新情報が提供されます。

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Rethink Energy Research Subscription

Rethink Energy is the only service specifically designed to explain and forecast the changing energy landscape and its investment possibilities as renewables begin to take over from conventional fossil fuels

Rethink Energy is about rethinking the generation of electricity on a global scale. We focus on the countries which are the largest users of electricity or which have the greatest possibilities in renewable energy, and blend these together into a single Annual Primary Electricity forecast. Its components are each available separately and include projections for solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear, the decline of coal and gas, and the multiple uses of the emerging hydrogen marketplace including making steel and cement.

We have also modeled any fresh use of electricity such as charging Electric Vehicles, producing Ammonia to fuel shipping, and the transition from gas to electricity in home heating.

We believe that our model shows the rise of many new markets which will require investment and which will yield extraordinary returns. Many of these are represented in the rise of Gigafactories – manufacturing environments within which 1GW or more of capacity are made each year in batteries, novel energy storage, electrolyzers, fuel cells and heat pumps, as energy ceases to be quite so project oriented, and becomes more commoditized.

Rethink Energy will also give indicators and clues of the speed at which fossil fuel markets will evaporate.

Subscription Content

Rethink Energy offers weekly analysis and each year produces at least 20 research papers, start-up interviews, 10 forecasts along with a weekly podcast. These are all available for a single corporate subscription price, although some start-ups and specialist firms may be allowed to purchase an individual piece of research if they request it.

エネルギー：サプライチェーン価格

2023年9月21日（木）

サウジアラビアとロシアの減産により、原油価格は上昇を続け、火曜日に一時１バレル＝95ドルを超えました。ブレント原油とＷＴＩ原油はそれぞれ93．68ドルと90．48ドルまで若干下落を見せました。 原油価格は現在、インフレ抑制のためにさらなる利上げ可否について、連邦準備理事会の決定が待たれていますが、OPEC主要加盟国の自主的な供給削減により、原油価格が上昇する前から、利上げはすでに問題となっていました。 また、債務コストの増加により投資が減速することで、金利の上昇が基本およびバッテリー商品のコスト低下につながる可能性があります。

炭酸リチウムの価格の下落により、第4四半期の採掘契約の交渉時期に近づく中、一部の市場参加者は価格見積を一時的に保留しています。 これにより、電池グレードの炭酸リチウムの市場取引は減少し、前週は相対的な低迷となりました。 リチウム塩市場とより広範なバッテリー原材料市場は現在、中国の需要低迷と、昨年鉱山の稼働率を高めたハードロックリチウム資産からの生産量増加により、供給過剰に陥っています。 ポリシリコン価格はわずかに下落し、2ヶ月にわたったわずかな上昇に終止符が打たれた一方、ウェハ・セル・モジュール価格は安定しています。ポリシリコン生産能力の増強が予定されているため、価格は 11 月になっても大幅に上昇せず、2024 年初頭から若干下落する可能性があります。Rethink Technology Researchでは中期 (2024 年末) に 1 キログラムあたり 9 ドルになると予測しています。 ポリシリコンと kW モジュールあたり 165 ドルのままです。

[原文]

Oil prices have continued to climb following production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, briefly reaching above $95/barrel on Tuesday before retreating slightly to $93.68 and $90.48 for Brent and WTI crude oil respectively. Oil prices are now broadly awaiting a decision from the federal reserve on whether to further increase interest rates as a means to tame inflation, which was already problematic before the price of oil rallied following voluntary supply cuts from key OPEC members. Increasing interest rates also likely means falling base and battery commodity costs as investment slows due to the cost of debt increasing.

With lithium carbonate prices continuing to fall some market participants are temporarily suspending quoting prices as the market approaches the negotiation period for mining contracts in Q4. This has led to reduced market transactions and a relatively sluggish market over the last week for battery grade lithium carbonate. The market for lithium salts and the broader battery raw materials market is currently experiencing oversupply due to weak Chinese demand and increased output from hard-rock lithium assets which have increased mine utilization over the last year. Polysilicon prices fell slightly, ending two months of slight increases while wafer-cell-module prices stabilized. With more polysilicon production capacity set to come online including a couple of projects mentioned in this issue’s order section, prices may not even rise significantly in November before declining slightly from early 2024. Our medium-term (end-2024) forecast of $9 per kilogram polysilicon and $165 per kW modules is unchanged.