米国の湿式化学品サプライチェーン　2022-2026年

出版：TECHCET（テクセット）　出版年月：2022年11月

2022-2026 THE IMPACT OF CHIP EXPANSIONS ON THE US WET CHEMICAL SUPPLY CHAIN
米国の湿式化学品サプライチェーン　2022-2026年

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TECHCET「米国の湿式化学品サプライチェーン　2022-2026年 – 2022-2026 THE IMPACT OF CHIP EXPANSIONS ON THE US WET CHEMICAL SUPPLY CHAIN」は半導体製造向け湿式化学品（ウェットケミカル）の米国市場を対象に行ったチップ増産による影響分析、2026年までの市場予測などの調査・分析結果を提供します。

調査対象国

• 米国

調査対象化学品

• 硫酸（H2SO4）
• 過酸化水素（H2O2）
• アンモニア水（NH4OH）
• フッ化水素（HF）
• 塩化水素（HCI）
• リン酸（H3PO4）
• イソプロピルアルコール（IPA）

主な掲載内容

1. エグゼクティブサマリー
2. 最新情勢
3. 現状への変化予測
4. 供給、需要、生産能力
5. 予想される市場調整
6. 輸入の依存と課題
7. 実装と精度
8. リスクと機会に関するTECHCETの評価

Overview

• Provides focused information on US wet chemical demand vs. supply including volumes, revenues, wafer start demand and ranking of leading US chip fabricators.
• Who should get this report? Business Development Managers, Supply-Chain Managers, Financial Investment/Advisors, anyone interested in understanding the dynamic of the US Semiconductor Supply-Chains that support chip manufacturing.

目次

1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – EXPANSIONS THAT WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WAFER STARTS
1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS UP
TO 56%
1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE
MATERIALS INCREASES
1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED
1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – IMPORT DEPENDENCIES
1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – BY CHEMICAL
1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY- 7 OF 8
1.8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – TECHCET MARKET ASSESSMENT

2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS

2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC MARKETS
2.2 GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY
2.3 CHANGING CONDITIONS IMPACT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
2.4 MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
2.5 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING CHIP FAB
2.6 ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE MATERIALS INCREASES
2.7 IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND
2.8 CURRENT SUPPLIERS – SUPPLY CHAIN CHARACTERISTICS

3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO

3.1 ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS UPDATE 3.2 WITH PASSAGE OF US CHIPS ACT
3.3 CHIP ACT CATEGORIES
3.4 NEW FABS IN THE US
3.5 US FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY
3.6 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW
3.7 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW,CONTINUED
3.8 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND

4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY

4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT
(ESPECIALLY HERE)
4.2 EXPANSION DRIVES GROWTH IN MATERIALS DEMAND
4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED
4.4 CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP
4.5 PURITY OVERVIEW
4.6 FAB EXPANSIONS PUSH UP DEMAND FOR ALL MATERIALS
4.7 DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE
4.8 CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS UP TO 40%4.9 WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS 4.9.1 SULFURIC ACID – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND, H2SO4 4.9.1.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2SO4
4.9.1.2 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 4.9.2 IPA – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND, IPA
4.9.2.1 IPA UHP IMPORTS
4.9.2.2 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
4.9.3 HYDROGEN PEROXIDE – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 4.9.3.1 H2O2 UHP IMPORTS
4.9.3.2 H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 4.9.4 HCL – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND
4.9.4.1 HCL UHP IMPORTS
4.9.4.2 HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
4.9.5 NH4OH – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND
4.9.5.1 NH4OH UHP IMPORTS
4.9.5.2 NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
4.9.6 HF – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND
4.9.6.1 HF IMPORTS
4.9.6.2 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
4.9.7 H3PO4 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND
4.9.7.1 H3PO4 UHP & IMPORTS
4.9.7.2 H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
4.9.8 HNO3 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND
4.9.8.1 HNO3 IMPORTS
4.9.8.2 HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
4.10 KEY SUPPLIERS SUMMARY
4.11 CHEMICALS’ VOLUMES COMPARISON FOR CONSERVATIVE VS. FULL FAB EXPANSIONS IN 2026

5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS

5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS
5.2 ANTICIPATED ACTIONS
5.3 SUPPLIER US PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY
5.4 THE IMPACT OF TSMC
5.5 COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS

6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS

6.1 US DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS FOR UHP
6.2 A GROWING DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED PRODUCTS
6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION”

7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY

7.1 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS
7.2 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY
7.3 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS
7.3.1 EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS
7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS

8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

8.1 GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
8.2 INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
8.3 SUPPLIERS’ CONCERNS

APPENDIX A: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS
APPENDIX B: 2021 INTERVIEW QUOTES
APPENDIX C: NEW FAB RAMPING ASSUMPTIONS DEMAND

FIGURES & TABLES

FIGURES

FIGURE 1: 2026 CHIP FAB CAPACITY- 38.6 M/YR 200MM EQUIV.
FIGURE 2: US WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 200MM EQUIV. 2022-2026 BY NODE*
FIGURE 3: SHARE OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING
FIGURE 4: SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES BY HQ LOCATION
FIGURE 5: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT
FIGURE 6: US WAFER START CAPACITY FOR LOGIC DEVICES BY NODE, 2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)*
FIGURE 7: US WAFER CAPACITY FOR MEMORY DEVICES BY NODE ,2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)*
FIGURE 8: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)
FIGURE 9: SULFURIC ACID
FIGURE 10: INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026
FIGURE 11: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026
FIGURE 12: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW
FIGURE 13: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >50% FROM LEADING CHIP FABS 2022-2026
FIGURE 14: US CHIP EXPANSION GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE* 50
FIGURE 15: 2022–2026 VOLUME DEMAND BASED ON CHIP FAB CAPACITY 51
FIGURE 16: US H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MILLIONS KG) FIGURE 17: H2SO4 UHP GRADE –DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 18: H2SO4 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 19: SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 20: IPA UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH I NCREASE TO MEET DEMAND
FIGURE 21: US IPA 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 22: H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 23: H2O2 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 24: H2O2 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 25: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 26: HCL UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS (IMPORTS GROW IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND)
FIGURE 27: HCI US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 28: NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 29: NH4OH UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH GROW TO MEET DEMAND
FIGURE 30: NH4OH US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR FIGURE 31: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 32: HF UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH GROW IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND
FIGURE 33: HF US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 34: H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 35: H3PO4 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 36: H3PO4 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 37: HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)
FIGURE 38: HNO3 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 39: HNO3 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR
FIGURE 40: ARTIST RENDERING OF TSMC’S ARIZONA FACILITY, SCHEDULED TO START OPERATIONS IN 2024
FIGURE 41: SUPPLY-CHAIN LOGISTICS CHALLENGES EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM PANDEMIC AND ESCALATING DEMAND (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW)
FIGURE 42: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS INTO THE US IS FEASIBLE BUT IT’S NOT EASY AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE STEPS:
FIGURE 43: CHINA TO US OCEAN FREIGHT EXPORT PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 44: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE

TABLES

TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2022-2026
TABLE 2: US WET CHEMICAL SHORTFALLS EXPECTED
TABLE 3: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL LOCAL CAPACITY
TABLE 4: SUPPLY-CHAIN CHALLENGES WILL ESCALATE AS CHEMICAL DEMAND INCREASES
TABLE 5: US DOMESTIC TIER I TOP 3 SUPPLIERS BY VOLUME SUPPLIED
TABLE 6: KEY PROVISIONS OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT
TABLE 7: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026
TABLE 8: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE US 2026/2022
TABLE 9: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED (SAME AS TABLE 2)
TABLE 10: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS
TABLE 11: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2022-2026
TABLE 12: SUMMARY OF KEY US TIER 2 AND TIER 1 SUPPLIERS*
TABLE 13: INCREASED CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND FROM 2022
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY
TABLE 15: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS
TABLE 16: IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL AND UHP TOTAL
TABLE 17: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS 2022 VS. 2026 (SAME AS TABLE 3)
TABLE 18: IMPACT OF OCEAN FREIGHT ON CHEMICAL PRICE EXAMPLE
TABLE 19: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS
TABLE 20: PURITY REQUIREMENTS

[プレスリリース]
US Semiconductor Wet Chemicals Supply-Chain Restructuring to accommodate Chip Expansions

Supply-demand gaps will exist unless more domestic production is developed

San Diego, CA, November 16, 2022: TECHCET—the advisory firm providing electronics and semiconductor materials market supply-chain information—forecasts that the US Basic Wet Chemicals demand will exceed 210 K metric tons in 2022, as highlighted in TECHCET’S most recent study on the US Chip Expansion Impact on the Wet Chemical Supply-Chain. This increase in demand is expected to run into a supply crunch as chip fabs ramp in demand by 2026, especially due to increased interest in US fab expansions, acquisitions, and joint ventures following the recent passage of the US CHIPS Act. While chemical suppliers have been announcing their commitment to support these expansions, it is still unclear whether it will be enough to meet the growing demand. Announcements for new chemical facilities have been announced by Kanto / Chemtrade, ChanChung, Sunlit, and MGC, to name a few. Estimates on volume demand from chip expansions is provided below:

Growth in Chemical Demand Expected to Support US Chip Expansions

Note: several of the chip fabs that are included in these estimates will not be fully ramped until 2028. Therefore, chemical demand will grow even larger than what is stated above.
“The expansion announcements by material suppliers show positive domestic support for new H2SO4 and H2O2 capacity, while UHP HF and IPA may continue to be supported with imported material until volumes and pricing can justify full plant investments,” states Lita Shon-Roy, President and CEO of TECHCET. As a result, TECHCET expects to see continued supply constraints in these areas until container and shipping availability stabilizes and inventory management adjusts to the new volumes.

For NH4OH, 45% more volume will be required by 2026. This increased demand could be supported by local production, but commitments for expansions and new capability have yet to be publicly announced. For high purity chemicals like HNO3 and H3PO4, increasing local production has been a challenge as old plants have been shut down over the years without any new facilities to replace them. As a result, imports have started to increase. The small demand volumes associated with these two chemicals may make imports more attractive to suppliers, rather than building a new plant that has poor ROI and may encounter challenges associated with stringent US environmental regulations.

The risk of US recession will also invariably impact short term demand. However, given CHIPS Act funding and the persistent growing need for more semiconductor devices for modern technology, demand for consumer products is expected to continue on a steep growth curve over the next decade.